The Jacksonville Jaguars have a short week after defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 8, with Thursday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens taking place just days later for their Week 9 match.
On the surface, this should be an easy game to win; the Ravens lost both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley to injured reserve, and will be led by an undrafted rookie QB who is making his first-ever NFL start.
Yet self-inflicted mistakes can ruin even the easiest victory, and the Jaguars can't go into this game thinking they already have it in the bag.
Here are five keys to the game.
Shut down Derrick Henry
With Jackson and Huntley sidelined, the Ravens will likely lean heavily on their rushing attack, and that means stopping Derrick Henry must be Jacksonville's top defensive
priority.
Henry has rushed for 632 yards and eight touchdowns this season, and Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter acknowledged that running the football will be a critical part of the team's offensive strategy Thursday.
Jacksonville has been outstanding against the run, allowing a league-low 77.4 rushing yards per game. However, the season-ending loss of defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton presents a significant challenge, particularly against a physical runner like Henry. The Jaguars cannot afford to let Henry consistently pick up yardage on early downs and put Fagnano in manageable third-down situations. Maintaining gap discipline, tackling effectively, and preventing explosive runs will be essential.
Make the rookie quarterback uncomfortable
Joe Fagnano is preparing for his first NFL start. In Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills, he completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, throwing one interception while taking three sacks.
Jacksonville's defense should make life difficult for the inexperienced quarterback.
Defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile can use disguised coverages and varying pressure looks to force Fagnano into difficult decisions. The Jaguars recorded four sacks and forced three turnovers against Indianapolis, and another disruptive performance could put Baltimore's offense in a difficult position.
The key will be generating pressure without becoming overly aggressive and allowing easy completions or explosive plays to receivers such as Zay Flowers. If Jacksonville can consistently put Fagnano in obvious passing situations, the advantage should belong to the Jaguars' defense.
Keep the offense balanced
Jacksonville's offense delivered one of its most complete performances of the season against Indianapolis, with Trevor Lawrence throwing three touchdown passes and the rushing attack producing a season-high 183 yards. Bhayshul Tuten led the way with 104 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. added 41 yards and another score. However, Tuten's availability is uncertain after he missed practice each day this week with an ankle/foot injury. Rodriguez has also been limited with a hand injury.
Regardless of who carries the ball, Jacksonville needs to maintain the offensive balance that helped make Sunday's performance so effective. An established rushing attack will make life easier for Lawrence, create opportunities through play-action, and prevent Baltimore's defense from focusing exclusively on stopping the passing game.
Start fast and make Baltimore play from behind
A strong start Thursday could be especially helpful in securing a win. Baltimore's offensive approach will likely emphasize Henry and the ground game as the Ravens attempt to support their inexperienced quarterback. Falling behind early would make that approach considerably harder to maintain.
Jacksonville needs to capitalize on its early possessions, sustain drives, and finish opportunities with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. Lawrence has been particularly effective this season, throwing 17 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Continuing that efficiency while avoiding unnecessary risks could help Jacksonville dictate the tempo.
If the Jaguars force the Ravens to abandon their preferred offensive approach and rely on Fagnano to lead a comeback, it could play directly into Campanile's hands.
Avoid self-inflicted mistakes
Penalties have been a major issue at times this season, and while it's improved, they are still an issue. Jacksonville was flagged eight times for 65 yards against Indianapolis. Those kinds of mistakes could prove more consequential on the road against Baltimore, particularly on a short week when preparation time is limited. The Jaguars also need to protect the football and avoid giving the Ravens short fields or extra possessions. Baltimore may be dealing with significant injuries, but its defense still features established playmakers.
Jacksonville cannot afford to assume that the Ravens' depleted quarterback situation guarantees a victory. If the Jaguars can minimize penalties, win the turnover battle, and execute consistently on both sides of the ball, they should be in a strong position to secure their sixth win of the season.
This article originally appeared on Jaguars Wire: 5 keys to a Jaguars victory over the Ravens in Week 9
