The Duke Blue Devils (7-2, 4-2 ACC) and No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (8-1, 6-0) square off in an ACC matchup Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ABC). Let's analyze college football odds around the Duke at Miami odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Duke RB Nate Sheppard rushed for 217 yards and 3 TDs on 18 carries as the Blue Devils (-4.5) dominated the host NC State Wolfpack 41-3 (Under 54) Saturday. Duke outscored NC State 24-0 in the second quarter, including a 100-yard return by S Andrew Pellicciotta of a missed FG attempt to end the first half. Duke outgained NC State 461 yards to 217, holding the Wolfpack to 32 yards rushing.
A 21-point deficit for Miami
at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish proved too much to overcome as the Hurricanes' rally came up short 31-24 (Over 54.5) Saturday, though they did cover the 7.5-point spread. The Hurricanes played without Heisman Trophy hopeful WR Malachi Toney, who suffered a high ankle sprain during a midweek practice and required surgery. Without their star receiver, Miami got off to a slow start, scoring 3 points in the first half before finding their footing in the second half. Miami QB Darian Mensah, another Heisman candidate, completed 24 of 43 passes for 276 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT. Hurricanes WR Cooper Barkate caught 10 passes for 92 yards and 2 TDs, while WR Elija Lofton added 113 yards and 1 TD on 7 receptions.
Miami leads the all-time series vs. Duke 16-5. The schools last met in 2024, with host Miami cruising to a 53-31 victory.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
Watch NCAA football on Fubo!
Duke at Miami odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:18 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Duke +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Miami -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Duke +13.5 (-108) | Miami -13.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Duke at Miami picks and predictions
Prediction
Miami 27, Duke 17
Moneyline
PASS.
Do you know who has the the top-ranked defense in the ACC? It's Duke, and it's not particularly close.
The Blue Devils are giving up an average of 282.1 yards per game (with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons second at 310 YPG) and 13 points per game (Wake Forest is also second at 15.9 PPG). Duke has outscored its last 2 opponents (Boston College Eagles and NC State) by a combined score of 88-5.
The Hurricanes, who fell from No. 1 to No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings after their loss to Notre Dame, own the top offense in the ACC, and it's also not particularly close. Miami is averaging 516.6 YPG (the Louisville Cardinals are second at 488.1 YPG) and 45 PPG (Wake Forest is second at 43.3 PPG). But the Hurricanes offense is not the same without Toney, who accounted for 39 percent of Miami's receiving yards before his injury.
If you're on Miami there's no value in the moneyline. I do think Duke has a chance to pull off the upset, but as juicy as that +425 looks, the smart bet is on the spread.
Against the spread
BET DUKE +13.5 (-108).
The Blue Devils and former Miami coach Manny Diaz would love nothing more than to stick it to their former star QB and WR (Mensah and Barkate) who jumped ship to the Hurricanes after leading Duke to the ACC championship last season.
Duke QB Walker Eget has been steady if unspectacular as the Blue Devils have leaned more on their rushing attack this season. Duke is averaging 190.6 yards per game on the ground, third in the ACC, just behind Miami, which is averaging 191.2 YPG. Duke's Sheppard leads the ACC with 1,189 yards rushing and 17 TDs. Something will have to give in this matchup as Miami's defense ranks No. 1 in the nation defending the run (64.3 YPG).
The teams share 1 common opponent this season. Duke lost at home vs. the North Carolina Tar Heels 24-20, while Miami won at UNC 38-35.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 54.5 (-108).
It's a very interesting matchup as both teams' offensive strengths are the other teams' defensive strengths. I favor the defenses, especially with Toney missing from Miami's offense. The second half vs. Notre Dame was the first time Miami looked competent without Toney in the lineup. They're certainly not going to be as explosive without him. I expect more of a defensive struggle than an offensive shootout, keeping this one Under the total.
Best Prop Bet
Bet Duke QB WALKER EGET OVER 2+ TD PASSES (+135).
Eget has only thrown multiple TDs in a game twice this season, but I like the value and the matchup. While Miami's rush defense tops the nation, they're less than average against the pass, allowing 259.3 YPG, second worst in the ACC, and they've given up 16 passing TDs. Duke likely won't find as much success on the ground as usual which means Eget will need to shoulder some of the load if the Blue Devils are going to pull off the upset.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Auburn / BYU / Clemson / Colorado / Duke / Florida / Florida State / Georgia / Iowa / Kentucky / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / Texas Tech / UCLA / USC / Washington / Wisconsin / College Sports Wire / High Schools
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
