The Chicago White Sox and Houston Astros meet Tuesday in Game 1 of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card series in Houston, Texas. The first pitch from Daikin Park will be at 5 p.m. ET (Peacock / NBC Sports Network). Let's analyze MLB odds around the White Sox vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Astros won 5-2; won 3 of 4 in Houston
Chicago went 84-78 in the regular season and placed second behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and are third Wild Card. They averaged 4.79 runs per game (RPG), the highest franchise average since 2008, against 4.44 RPG allowed. They enter the postseason on a bit of a surge, going 6-2 over their last 8 games and outscoring opponents 54-31.
Houston went
81-81, edging the Texas Rangers (80-82) by 1 game for the AL West flag. The Astros, who get this series at home by way of being a division winner taking on a Wild Card team, went just 39-42 with a minus-31 run differential in 81 home games. Overall, they have averaged 4.53 RPG while allowing 4.73.
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White Sox at Astros projected starters
LHP Hagen Smith vs. RHP AJ Blubaugh
Smith (3-3, 1.29 ERA) is making his second start and 19th career appearance. The 23-year-old rookie has a 0.96 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 13.2 K/9 in 28 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-1 win vs. Colorado Rockies Friday
- Expected to serve as an opener
- Has pitched multiple innings in 7 of his last 10 games
- Has never faced the Astros
Blubaugh (5-3, 3.66 ERA) is making his first start this season (fourth of his career) after 64 relief appearances. The 26-year-old rookie has registered a 1.23 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 96 innings.
- Last outing: No-decision, 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 6-5 loss at A's Friday
- Expected to be the opener
- 2026/career vs. White Sox: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP, 0 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 3 games
White Sox at Astros odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): White Sox +108 (bet $100 to win $108) | Astros -126 (bet $126 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-192) | Astros -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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White Sox at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, White Sox 3
Moneyline
The last 9 series meetings have produced a 7-2 edge for Houston. In home series games, the Astros have won 4 of their last 5.
The Astros are in the postseason for a ninth time in the last 11 years, while the White Sox are appearing in the playoffs for a first time since 2021.
The bullpen game appears to be a ChiSox advantage on the surface. Chicago registered a 3.70 relief ERA compared to Houston's 4.08 mark in the regular season. But in the second half, the Astros bullpen has been improved (3.76 ERA).
Peg the ASTROS (-126) as the value side of this series opener.
Run line/Against the spread
No interest; PASS.
Over/Under
Both clubs have piled up hefty Over profits in games following off days, but the Under has cashed in 3 straight series meetings. All 3 of those contests were in Houston (Sept. 1-3), and the Under margin of cover was by a combined 9.5 runs. The Under is 5-2 across the last 7 White Sox-Astros games played at Daikin Park.
The bullpen factor adds some expected-versus-actual tilt leaning Under. And the back ends of both relief corps will be in good shape, so the leverage may well lean pitching-and-defense.
Figure the UNDER 8.5 (-122) as the value end here.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions
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