The Dallas Mavericks (1-2) and Miami Heat (0-3) meet Monday for the first of 2 matchups in the 2026-27 season. Tip from Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let's analyze NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025-26 season series: Split 1-1 with each winning at home
The Mavericks lost to the San Antonio Spurs 122-106 Saturday, failing to cover as a 14.5-point home underdog with the Under (229.5) cashing. Dallas kept things close, trailing by 1 point in the final period, before being outscored 30-17 in the fourth. Rookie G Sergio De Larrea led the way with 21 points on 9 for 15 shooting. The Mavericks are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) and 1-2 Over/Under
(O/U).
The Heat, who made a blockbuster trade to bring in 2-time MVP F Giannis Antetokounmpo, lost 115-110 to the Charlotte Hornets Saturday. They failed to cover as a 4.5-point road favorite with the Under (227.5) hitting. Antetokounmpo scored just 14 points as G Davion Mitchell tallied a team-high 22. Miami, which has closed as a favorite in 2 of its 3 contests, is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 O/U.
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Mavericks at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:52 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Heat -325 (bet $325 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +8.5 (-110) | Heat -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Mavericks at Heat key injuries
Mavericks
- F Cooper Flagg (shoulder) questionable
- C Dereck Lively II (foot) out
- F Naji Marshall (illness) out
Heat
- None
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Mavericks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 116, Mavericks 112
Moneyline
PASS.
Avoid this play. The Heat (-325) should pick up their first win of the season, but they're far too expensive to consider on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET MAVERICKS +8.5 (-110).
The Heat just haven't looked like a side capable of contending. They have a 25-point loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, a 17-point loss to the Detroit Pistons and a 5-point loss to Charlotte on their resume so far this season, with the first 2 of those being at home.
With many new pieces on the roster, things just haven't clicked so far for Miami offensively, sitting 25th in offensive rating, and one shouldn't expect that to change Monday. For Dallas, while it might be a bit shorthanded, it has the high-end talent in G Kyrie Irving to keep things close. It is 1-0 ATS in its lone game as a single-digit underdog.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 236.5 (-105).
There's no reason to think that either of these offenses, let alone both, will be able to help this Over hit. The Mavericks have gone over 110 points just once this season and are 1-2 O/U. The Heat have yet to top 111 points, and their atrocious defense should get a rest against a Mavericks side that sits 15th in offensive rating.
With neither side in the top half of the league in offensive rebounding rate either, expect limited second-chance opportunities and back the UNDER 236.5 (-105).
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions
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