The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians meet Saturday for Game 5 of their American League Division Series at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze MLB odds around the White Sox vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Best-of-5 series: Tied 2-2
The road team is 4-0 in this series with the underdog going 3-1. The Over is also 3-1, including 3-0 in the last 3 games.
Cleveland forced this decisive Game 5 with a 9-5 road victory Thursday in Chicago. It was the first time the chalk won in the series as the Guardians were -118 favorites. The Over (7) cashed in the top of the sixth.
Cleveland trailed 2-0 after 4 innings and 4-3
after 5 innings, before exploding for 6 runs in the top of the sixth to blow things wide open. 3B Jose Ramirez went 2 for 5 with a homer, 2 runs and 3 RBIs, while DH Jo Adell (1 for 4) drove in 2 runs. PH-C Patrick Bailey ended up 2 for 3 with a homer, 2 runs and 2 RBIs.
For Chicago, 3B Miguel Vargas had a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth inning to close the lead to 9-5, but the ChiSox could get no closer. Vargas finished 1 for 2 with the solo homer, 2 runs and 3 walks. PH-DH Sam Antonacci finished 1 for 2 with 2 RBIs.
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White Sox at Guardians projected starters
RHP Sean Burke vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA) made 27 starts and 5 relief appearances in the regular season. He posted a 1.20 WHIP with 3.2 BB/9, 9.7 K/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP of relief, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 road victory in Game 2 Monday
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (3 HR), 0 BB, 8 K in 7-3 win at Houston Astros in Wild Card Game 2 Sept. 30
- 2026 postseason: 1-0, 3.86 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.64 WHIP, 5 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 14 K (13.5 K/9) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
- 2026 regular-season road splits: 7-2, 2.58 ERA (69 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 7 HR, 9.8 K/9 in 13 games (10 starts)
- Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 2.56 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 7 games (5 starts)
- 2026 regular season vs. Guardians: 2-0, 1.04 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 2 solo HR, 21 K (10.9 K/9) in 3 games (2 starts)
Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.11 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 12.1 K/9 in 184 1/3 innings.
- Last outing: 1 IP of relief in 9th inning, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K, 18 pitches in 9-5 road victory in Game 5 Thursday
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 11 K in 4-3 home loss in Game 2 Monday
- 2026 postseason: 0-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 5 H (0 HR), 3 BB, 12 K (18.0 K/9) in 1 start and 1 relief appearance
- 2026 regular-season home splits: 8-4, 2.84 ERA (107 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 12 HR, 12.5 K/9 in 18 starts
- Ranked 2nd in MLB with 248 K's -- Milwaukee's Jacob Misiorowski was first with 252
- Career vs. White Sox (regular season): 1-2, 4.72 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 4 HR, 11.0 K/9 in 7 starts
- 2026 regular season vs. White Sox: 0-1, 3.98 (20 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 2 HR, 28 K (12.4 K/9) in 4 starts
White Sox at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): White Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): White Sox +1.5 (-190) | Guardians -1.5 (+154)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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White Sox at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 3, White Sox 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (-135) are a strong play to cap off the comeback in this series, after the White Sox (+115) fired out to a 2-0 ALDS lead. Remember, Chicago won both Game 1 and Game 2 in Cleveland, so it won't be easy. However, everything is set up for the Guardians in terms of pitching as they get their strikeouts leader going in this winner-take-all tilt.
Run line/Against the spread
If you're a little on the conservative side, backing White Sox +1.5 (-190) is a bit on the expensive side for a singular play. If you have a boost or promo, that might be OK, and certainly it's fine to play Chicago in a multi-leg parlay with at least 3 ends.
Otherwise, AVOID as a singular play.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (+100) at even-money is a strong play, even though the Over has cashed in each of the past 3 games.
This is an elimination game. Somebody's season will be over. Nerves will be high as nobody wants the season to end. Look for runs to be at a premium Saturday night.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions
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