The No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1, 2-1 SEC) and the No. 21 LSU Tigers (4-2, 1-2) meet Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ESPN). Let's analyze college football odds around the Mississippi State vs. LSU odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Mississippi State is coming off a bye after suffering its first loss of the season, a 56-23 setback at home to No. 7 Alabama Oct. 3. The Bulldogs were 5.5-point underdogs and the Over (62.5) cashed.
Unfortunately, even with the week off, the Bulldogs are dealing with injuries. QB Kamario Taylor suffered a foot injury late in the Bama game and is listed as doubtful vs. LSU, according to ESPN, while linebackers
Jalen Smith and Zakari Tillman have been ruled out, per SBNation. Leading RB Fluff Bothwell (foot) is doubtful, meaning backups Kolin Wilson (31 carries, 131 rushing yards, 0 TDs this season) and Xavier Gayten (16 carries, 51 yards, 1 TD) will be thrust into larger roles.
Lane Kiffin's Tigers are also dealing with injuries. LB Whit Weeks is out with a lower right leg fracture, while LB Tylen Singleton is doubtful with an undisclosed injury.
LSU was upset 35-34 in OT at current-No. 17 Kentucky last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite when the Wildcats went for the win and converted a 2-point conversion in the extra period. The Tigers are just 2-2 straight up in the past 4 games, and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5. The Over, which hit in the Kentucky loss (50.5), is 3-1 in LSU's 4 home games, while the Tigers went 2-2 ATS in those outings.
For the season, LSU is 2-4 ATS with a 4-2 Over/Under (O/U) showing, while Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS with a 3-2 O/U mark, alternating in each of the first 5 games.
As for the all-time series, LSU's official game notes claim the Tigers lead 78-36-3, while Mississippi State's game notes report 76-38-3. The discrepancy likely involves forfeited and vacated wins.
LSU took the past 3 meetings and 5 of the last 6, including a 41-14 rout as a 9.5-point road favorite in Starkville Sept. 16, 2023 -- the last time they met -- with the Over (54.5) sneaking in.
LSU won the last meeting in Death Valley, posting a 31-16 win as a 2.5-point underdog Sept. 17, 2022, but Mississippi State's last win vs. LSU was actually in Baton Rouge Sept. 26, 2020, a 44-34 victory as a 16.5-point dog during the COVID-19 season with a limited crowd.
The last Bulldogs win in front of a full Death Valley crowd 12 years ago, a 34-29 upset as 7-point underdogs Sept. 20, 2014.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Mississippi State at LSU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:48 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mississippi State +600 (bet $100 to win $600) | LSU -800 (bet $800 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mississippi State +17.5 (-110) | LSU -17.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Mississippi State at LSU picks and predictions
Prediction
LSU 37, Mississippi State 23
Moneyline
LSU (-800) will set you back 8 times the potential return where a $100 wager nets a profit of just $12.50. That's way too much risk for not nearly enough reward ... even if you were to use a boost or promo.
PASS.
Against the spread
MISSISSIPPI STATE +17.5 (-110) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.
This is a difficult game to handicap, as the health of Bulldogs QB Taylor matters a bunch. If he's able to play and perform at his pre-injury level, the Bulldogs could win this game outright. If he's unable to go and Bothwell is also sidelined, Mississippi State could get boat-raced. We'll play the middle.
It's very concerning that Mississippi State is missing 2 key linebackers, but LSU's defense could be in the same boat there. Plus, the Tigers haven't come close to living up to expectations, although both of their losses were on the road. However, LSU has won by 29 or more points in all 3 games in Baton Rouge this season, including a 35-6 beatdown of then-No. 20 Texas A&M Sept. 26.
Over/Under
OVER 55.5 (-115) is worth a play, but again, the health of Taylor matters mightily. If he is able to start, go all-in on the Over. There are a lot of talented, NFL-caliber linebackers on the injury report, so we could have a track meet Saturday afternoon in Death Valley.
Best prop bet(s)
2-leg parlay (FanDuel Sportsbook):
LSU OVER 466.5 TOTAL YARDS (-114) & LSU RB DILIN JONES ANYTIME TD SCORER (-310) = +123
You shouldn't play Jones as an anytime TD Scorer (-310) as it will cost 3.1 times the potential return. However, pairing him with the Tigers' total yardage makes for a nice plus-money parlay at +123.
Jones has 5 rushing TDs through 6 games, including finding the end zone in each of the past 2 home games. Even when healthy, Mississippi State allows 379.6 total yards per game. With 2 top linebackers out, expect the LSU offense to roll.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU Tigers odds, picks and predictions
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