The San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Saturday for Game 1 of the National League Division Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. First pitch is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2026 season series: Padres won 4-2; Brewers won 2-1 at American Family Field
This is the first postseason meeting between these teams. The Padres swept a best-of-3 Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs at home on Tuesday and Wednesday, outscoring the Cubs 12-1 as a favorite in both games while splitting the Over-Under.
The Brewers won 103 games enroute to the No. 1 seed in the National League. Milwaukee won 5 in a row
to close out the regular season and hasn't played since last Sunday.
At home, Milwaukee is 8-1 in the past 9 games and 13-3 across the past 16 outings. The Brewers went 55-26 at home during the regular season. They face LHP Robbie Ray of the Padres, and Milwaukee was a sparkling 36-14 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.
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Padres at Brewers projected starters
LHP Robbie Ray vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA) made 30 starts (31 appearances) in the regular season with the Giants and Padres. The lefty had a 1.35 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9, 7.6 K/9 in 165 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-1 road win vs. LA Dodgers Sept. 23
- 2026 road splits (15 starts - 16 appearances): 7-5, 3.96 ERA (84 IP, 37 ER), 14 HR, 37 BB, 76 K
- Postseason career (2 starts - 6 appearances): 0-3, 7.43 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 3 HR, 5 BB, 19 K
- Career vs. Brewers (7 starts): 3-1, 2.82 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 4 HR, 20 BB, 46 K, 10.8 K/9
Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) made 30 starts this season. He had a 0.80 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 13.0 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 27
- 2026 home splits (16 starts - 1 CG): 8-1, 1.52 ERA (95 IP, 16 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 10 HR, 21 BB, 145 K
- Led MLB with 252 strikeouts in 2026
- Postseason career (3 relief appearances - 0 starts): 2-1, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 0.83 WHIP, 16 K
- Career/2026 vs. Padres (1 start - May 13): No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-1 home loss
Padres at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-125) | Brewers -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Padres at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 4, Padres 1
Moneyline
The Brewers (-220) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not nearly enough reward for a singular play, even with a boost or promo.
If you were to take Milwaukee as part of a multi-leg parlay, that would be perfectly fine.
However, AVOID as a singular play.
Run line/Against the spread
The BREWERS -1.5 (+105) are a much better play at plus-money on the run line behind Misiorowski.
Ray has been dreadful over his career with 3 different teams in the postseason, and Milwaukee's offense should be able to tee off on him.
Over/Under
UNDER 7 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Brewers have the pitching to keep the Padres down, but the concern with playing the Under is Ray's terrible splits in the playoffs across his career, so tread lightly.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions
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