The Atlanta Falcons (0-2) and the Green Bay Packers (1-1) meet in Week 3 for Thursday Night Football at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Falcons vs. Packers odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Packers lead the all-time series 19-17, with the Falcons winning 25-24 in the most recent matchup Sept. 17, 2023 in Atlanta. The home team has won 8 consecutive meetings in this series since 2013, including the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta on Jan. 22, 2017, a 44-21 win by the Falcons. Atlanta went on to blow a 28-3 lead to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI in Houston.
The Falcons have gotten off to a horrendous start
under new coach Kevin Stefanski, losing 20-13 at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 as a 6.5-point underdog, while getting crushed 34-3 in the home opener by the Carolina Panthers as 2.5-point underdogs. The Under has cashed in both games, too.
Atlanta did get some encouraging news this week, as QB Michael Penix Jr. (knee) will be healthy enough to start, while QB Tua Tagovailoa (olbique) might also be available. Third-string QB Cooper Rush was forced to start the first 2 games due to injuries to Penix and Tua, but things got so bad in Week 2, Rush was benched for QB Jack Strand.
Green Bay was stunned in the opener at the Minnesota Vikings, falling 39-22, but it bounced back to win in overtime on the road against the New York Jets, 20-17. It failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite, and it is now 0-2 against the spread (ATS) while splitting the Over-Under. OG Zach Bako-Bewele (knee - formerly Zach Tom) and WR Jayden Reed (neck) left Sunday's OT win, and are unlikely for TNF.
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Falcons at Packers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 5:22 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Falcons +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Packers -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +5 (-110) | Packers -5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Falcons at Packers injuries
Falcons
- CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Achilles) questionable
- DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring) out
Packers
- OG Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) out
- OG Aaron Banks (knee, toe) out
- DT Warren Brinson (calf) out
- DT Anthony Campbell (ankle) questionable
- NT Javon Hargrave (knee, concussion) questionable
- WR Jayden Reed (neck) out
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Falcons at Packers picks and predictions
Prediction
Packers 22, Falcons 19
Moneyline
The Packers (-250) have been hard to figure out in the early going, and risking 2 1/2 times your potential return is certainly not appealing. Bako-Bewele is a key part of the O-line, and he is likely out, as is Reed, after a scary injury in the Meadowlands. There are some key parts banged up on defense, too.
On the flip side, the Falcons (+200) should be better with Penix, but there could be some rust. Besides, Lambeau isn't the easiest place to open your season after a layoff.
PASS.
Against the spread
Back FALCONS +5 (-110), but go rather lightly. Perhaps better QB play will open things up more for RB Bijan Robinson, who is probably the best football player on the field for either side.
I don't feel Atlanta will win, but this should be a 1-possession game, with the Falcons rallying around Penix for a much better effort than we've seen so far.
Over/Under
UNDER 43 (-108) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
The Under has cashed in both games for the Falcons so far, while splitting in 2 games for the Packers. Atlanta will likely want to run the ball with Bijan, and Under bettors love a run game, as the clock keeps ticking.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers odds, picks and predictions
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