The Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians meet Thursday for Game 3 of their American League Championship Series at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. First pitch has been moved to 1 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Rays vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Best-of-7 series: 1-1. Rays won regular-season series 5-1
Because of inclement Cleveland weather, the start time for Game 3 of the ALCS has been moved up 5 hours. The series had the day off on Wednesday.
The Guardians took the first game as their bats stayed hot from the ALDS. RF Chase DeLauter (3 for 4, 3 R, RBI, BB) and C Patrick Bailey (2 for 4, R, RBI) homered in the eighth inning to take the win, 7-3.
Then Cleveland cooled off.
The Rays responded with a 3-1 win in Game 2. RHP Freddy Peralta, a midseason acquisition, led the way on the bump for Tampa. He pitched 6 scoreless innings, allowing 4 hits, 2 BB, with 6 K. C Liam Hicks (2 for 3, 2 RBIs) knocked in 2 runners in the fourth inning en route to the win. RHP Bryan Baker (1 K) slammed the door shut in the ninthnfor the save.
RHP Griffin Jax is scheduled to start Game 3 for the Rays and will hope to keep his team's momentum going. Meanwhile, RHP Gavin Williams will hope to get the Guardians back to winning ways. Williams took the win in Cleveland's do-or-die Game 5 ALDS 2-0 win against the Chicago White Sox last round.
The Rays cashed as a -131 favorite in Game 2, while the Under (6.5) came in.
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Rays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Griffin Jax vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Jax (8-10, 3.53 ERA) made 23 starts in 34 appearances in the regular season. He posted a 1.18 WHIP with 2.8 BB/9, 9.3 K/9 in 112 1/3 IP.
- Last outing (Game 3 ALDS vs. New York Yankees): 2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 7-6 win
- 2026 regular-season road splits (10 starts in 18 appearances): 4-5, 3.61 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 6 HR, 15 BB, 39 K
- Career vs. Guardians (3 starts in 27 appearances): 4-5, 3.89 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 17 ER) 3 HR, 9 BB, 33 K
Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA) made 32 starts in the regular season. He posted a 1.11 WHIP with 3 BB/9, 7 K/9 in 184 1/3 IP.
- Last outing (Game 5 ALDS vs. White Sox): Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 12 K in a 2-0 final
- 2026 regular-season home splits (18 starts): 8-4, 2.84 ERA (107 2/3 IP, 34 ER) 1.04 WHIP, 12 HR, 33 BB, 150 K
- Career vs. Rays (5 starts): 2-1, 1.80 ERA (30 IP, 6 ER), 3 HR, 8 BB, 29 K
Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:17 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Guardians -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-210) | Guardians -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 6, Rays 2
Moneyline
The Guardians (-135) are heading back home where they did not start the postseason well, losing the first 2 games of the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox.
However, Williams is a workhorse and should still be fired up for the home crowd as he's making his first start since his decisive effort in a crucial Game 5 last round. The Guardians' bats were cold in Game 2, but after winning 4 straight postseason games prior to that, they'll be back.
Run line/Against the spread
If you're a little more adventurous, taking the Guardians ATS could pay off too. While the Guardians only scored a single run last outing, that was against the Rays' ace RHP Drew Rasmussen. He will not be out there Thursday.
Over/Under
OVER 6.5 (-120) ride alongside the Guardians' bats heating up at home. The Rays shouldn't go down without a fight either.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions
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