The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs open their 2026 NFL regular-season schedules Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Broncos vs. Chiefs odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
Were the Broncos a fluke last season or have they elevated themselves to perennial contender with QB Bo Nix? After Nix was injured in the Broncos' victory over the Buffalo Bills in AFC divisional round, the offense floundered with Jarrett Stidham behind center in losing to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, leaving Denver to wonder what might have been had Nix been able to play. In his second season in Denver,
Nix threw for 3,931 yards, 25 TDs and 11 INTs -- numbers very similar to his rookie campaign -- while leading the team to the AFC West title with a 14-3 record. He'll have a new target in WR Jaylen Waddle, whom the team acquired from the Miami Dolphins along with a fourth-round pick for first-, third-, and fourth-round picks.
As solid as Nix has been in his first two seasons, it was the defense that helped elevate Denver to the upper tier of the AFC in 2025. The Broncos ranked first in sacks (68 -- 11 more than the next best team), second in total defense (278.2 yards allowed per game) and third in points allowed (18.3). The Broncos were largely able to keep the defense intact over the offseason, with DE John Franklin-Myers the only regular starter lost in free agency. Defensive end Jonathon Cooper, however, is on the commissioner's exempt list and will miss the opener.
Coming off 3 straight Super Bowl appearances, something wasn't quite right with the Chiefs in 2025. Across most measures, prior to injuring his knee in Week 15, QB Patrick Mahomes was having his worst season since becoming the Chiefs starter in 2018 -- lowest completion percentage (62.7%), fewest yards (3,587), fewest TDs (22) and a QB rating of 89.6. Years of failing to add talent around Mahomes finally caught up with the Chiefs with the rushing attack falling to 25th in the league (106.6 ypg). Kansas City addressed that by adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency. The 25-year-old Walker rushed for 1,027 yards and 5 TDs last season for the Seattle Seahawks.
While the offense tanked in 2025, the Chiefs defense did their best to keep the team in contention, ranking sixth in points allowed (19.3 ppg) and 10th in total defense (301.5 ypg allowed). But the unit took a hit this offseason, losing three key members of the secondary -- CB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson and S Bryan Cook. The hope is that rookie CB Mansoor Delane out of LSU can help fill part of the void after the team traded up with the Cleveland Browns to draft him with the sixth overall pick.
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Broncos at Chiefs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 4:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Broncos +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Chiefs -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Broncos +2.5 (-110) | Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Broncos at Chiefs key injuries
BRONCOS
- No injuries reported
CHIEFS
- OT Josh Simmons (back) out
- S Chamarri Conner (knee) out
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Broncos at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 24, Broncos 23
Moneyline
BET CHIEFS (-135).
Do I like the fact that an undrafted rookie -- Kahlil Benson -- will likely be starting at left tackle in Mahomes first game back since blowing out his left knee against a team against that led the league in sacks last season? No, no I do not. But he made the team for a reason. Ideally, he won't be a turnstile.
It's a great mystery as to what Mahomes will look like in his first game since his injury. Will he display the same mobility that's electrified fans and staggered defenses throughout his career?
The great players always seem to rise to the challenge and deliver in moments like this. It's going to be a rocking home crowd on a Monday night, ready to welcome back their 3-time Super Bowl-winning QB. I can't bet against that.
Against the spread
PASS.
Typically with a spread under 3, I'd give the points when taking the favorite. But I just have an inkling this could be a nail-biter with some late Mahomes magic.
If I trust my predicted score, I could take the points and bet the Broncos +2.5, but I'll just stick with Chiefs moneyline. The Broncos played in 4 games decided by 2 points or less last season, the Chiefs in 1.
Over/Under
BET OVER 43.5 (-110).
I'm definitely going against recent trends for this matchup as the total has gone Under in 6 straight games between the teams. But it's the first week of Monday Night Football and one of the biggest stars in the league is returning to the field looking for a bounce-back season.
Best prop bet
BET PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS (+105 BETMGM).
For all the reasons mentioned above, I'm all over Mahomes to come through with a big game under the lights.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions
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