The Houston Astros (75-72) and Tampa Bay Rays (87-59) open a 3-game series Friday at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Astros vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-1
RF Cam Smith hit a solo shot in the top of the ninth to lift the Astros (+160) to a 2-1 (Under 8.5) victory over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday. Astros starter Jhoan Duran allowed 1 run on 3 hits and 1 walk and struck out 5 over 6 innings, while the bullpen didn't allow a baserunner over the final 3 innings as Houston took 2 of 3 in Philadelphia.
The Rays couldn't complete a 3-game sweep of the Braves (-135) in Atlanta, falling
3-1 (Under 8.5) Thursday. The Rays dominated the first 2 games of the series, winning 7-1 and 7-2, but couldn't get the bats going against Atlanta's Martin Perez, who held Tampa Bay scoreless in his 7 innings of work. The Rays' Nick Martinez was equally as strong, tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing 2 hits, while striking out 3. The Braves didn't take their first lead of the series until the eighth inning, scoring all 3 runs off reliever Kevin Kelly.
The Astros lead the Texas Rangers by 3 games in the AL West. The Rays' magic number is down to 1 to clinch a playoff berth as they continue to hold the best record in the AL, while the New York Yankees are 3 games back in the AL East.
Watch MLB on Fubo!
Astros at Rays projected starters
RHP Miguel Ullola vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen
Ullola (0-0, 3.86 ERA) makes his first career start after 5 relief appearances. The 24-year-old rookie has a 0.86 WHIP, 1.29 BB/9 and 12.86 K/9 in 7 innings.
- Last game: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in a 3-2 loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday
- 2026 minor league stats (39 games, 10 starts): 5-4, 4.21 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 45 H, 9 HR, 42 BB, 90 K with AAA Sugar Land
Rasmussen (14-5, 2.88 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.58 BB/9 and 9.16 K/9 in 153 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 6-3 (10 innings) victory at Rangers Saturday
- 2026 home splits (13 starts): 8-3, 3.22 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 56 H, 5 HR, 16 BB, 79 K
- Career vs. Astros (6 games, 5 starts): 2-2, 4.85 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 16ER), 1.11 WHIP, 29 H, 4 HR, 4 BB, 18 K
- Last start vs. Astros: 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 10-8 Rays loss at Houston on July 4
Astros at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)
Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!
Astros at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 6, Astros 2
Moneyline
PASS.
It's all set up to be a big night for the Rays, who begin a 9-game homestand with their ace on the mound and a chance to clinch a playoff berth, while the Astros will be trotting out Ullola to open as part of a bullpen game. The Rays are 9-0 in games started by Rasmussen since the All-Star break, but rather than taking Tampa Bay straight up, I'll give the runs for better value.
Run line/Against the spread
BET RAYS -1.5 (+125).
Rays pitching has been in a groove, allowing 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. Rasmussen has been exceptional since the All-Star break, allowing 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 9 starts and he's gone at least 5 innings in all 9 of those starts.
While the Rays bats were held in check Thursday, they had scored at least 6 runs in their previous 5 games and should be able to take advantage of an Astros bullpen that ranks middle of the pack.
Over/Under
PASS.
I'd lean Over (7.5) because the Rays have been hitting well of late and the total has gone Over 7.5 in 4 of Rasmussen's last 5 starts. On the flip side, 4 of the past 6 Astros games have gone Under 7.5. I'd stay away.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
Our editors independently choose our recommendations. Some content is produced with paid support from a third party, however our editorial decisions remain independent. If you buy through our links, the USA TODAY Network may earn a commission. Prices and availability may change.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside. It is your sole responsibility to act in accordance with your local laws.
Gambling involves risk. Please only gamble with funds that you can comfortably afford to lose. While we do our utmost to offer good advice and information we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of gambling. We do our best to make sure all the information that we provide on this site is correct. However, from time to time mistakes will be made and we will not be held liable. Please check any stats or information if you are unsure how accurate they are. No guarantees are made with regards to results or financial gain. All forms of betting carry financial risk and it is up to the individual to make bets with or without the assistance of information provided on this site and we cannot be held responsible for any loss that may be incurred as a result of following the betting tips provided on this site. Past performances do not guarantee success in the future and betting odds fluctuate from one minute to the next. The material contained on this site is intended to inform, entertain and educate the reader and in no way represents an inducement to gamble legally or illegally or any sort of professional advice.
Prediction Markets: Certain prediction markets are event contracts regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or other applicable regulatory authorities and are legally distinct from traditional gambling and sports betting. Eligibility requirements to participate in prediction markets differ from those for sports betting and gambling — you may be required to be 18 or older (or such other age as the applicable platform requires) and to satisfy other eligibility criteria established by the relevant platform and governing law. Prediction market trading involves financial risk and may not be available in all jurisdictions. The legal and regulatory status of prediction markets varies by jurisdiction and by platform. It is your sole responsibility to confirm that participation is lawful where you reside and to comply with all applicable laws and platform terms.
