The Virginia Cavaliers (4-2, 2-1 ACC) and No. 22 SMU Mustangs (4-1, 2-1) square off in an ACC matchup Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. Kickoff is set for noon ET (CW). Let's analyze college football odds around the Virginia at SMU odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Virginia RB Jekail Middlebrook ran for 2 fourth-quarter TDs as the Cavaliers (-14.5) rallied past the visiting Syracuse Orange 28-25 (Over 49) last Saturday. Middlebrook rushed for 95 yards on 17 carries as QB Beau Pribula had a quiet day, completing 11 of 19 passes for 119 yards and 1 TD. Syracuse controlled the ball for more than 35 minutes and had 430 total yards (267 passing 163 rushing), while Virginia was held
to 288 yards.
SMU is coming off a bye week after defeating the visiting Boston College Eagles (+21.5) 25-16 Oct. 4 as the Under (55) hit. QB Kevin Jennings completed 20 of 30 passes for 160 yards and 2 TDs and also ran for a score on a day the Mustangs were limited to 218 total yards.
SMU has won the only meeting between the teams, 33-7 at Virginia in 2024.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Virginia at SMU odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 7:28 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Virginia +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | SMU -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Virginia +9.5 (-108) | SMU -9.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -112 | U: -105)
Virginia at SMU picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 27, Virginia 20
Moneyline
PASS.
Virginia has lost both times they've left the friendly confines of Scott Stadium this season and I don't suspect they'll have any better luck winning at SMU, but I think they can keep it close.
Against the spread
BET VIRGINIA +9.5 (-108).
SMU has the third best offense in the ACC at 479.2 yards per game (YPG) and top-ranked passing offense (341 YPG), while Virginia enters the game with the league's best passing defense (161 YPG). Virginia has been more susceptible to the run, giving up 151.8 YPG, while SMU is averaging 138.2 yards on the ground.
In both their losses, Virginia struggled against dual-threat QBs. While Jennings can run, he's generally a passer, throwing for 1,588 yards and 14 TDs, whereas he's run 32 times for 69 yards and 2 TDs. RB Kendrick Raphael's best game came in SMU's loss to the Louisville Cardinals, where he ran for 197 yards and 3 TDs, but he has failed to rush for more than 100 yards in any other game and has 3 TDs combined across 4 other games.
SMU has only one dominant win, that coming against the FCS UC Davis Aggies, otherwise their other 3 wins have come by 10 points or less. They are 1-3-1 ATS, while Virginia is 3-3.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 51.5 (-110).
Virginia has a middle of the pack offense. They're a better rushing team than passing team and SMU's defense is better against the pass anyway. If Virginia is going to keep this close, they'll need to do it with ball control and defense, which should pull this one Under.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Virginia Cavaliers at SMU Mustangs odds, picks and predictions
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