The New England Patriots (4-3) and Miami Dolphins (1-5) square off Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Patriots at Dolphins odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
New England QB Drake Maye threw for 321 yards and 2 TDs, but the Patriots fell 30-24 (Over 51) at the Chicago Bears (-2.5) on Oct. 22. Maye completed 24 of 31 passes, but threw a costly INT in the end zone late in the second quarter. Unfortunately for the Patriots, Maye was also the team's leading rusher with 26 yards and 1 TD on 4 runs. While RB Rhamondre Stevenson was bottled up on the ground (6 carries, 22 yards), he did catch 5 passes for 93 yards and 1 TD.
The Bears totaled 405 yards of offense, with QB Caleb Williams completing 22 of 33 passes for 308 yards and 2 TDs.
Miami RB Ollie Gordon II rushed for 103 yards and a TD on 25 carries as the Dolphins (+3.5) held off the Jets 28-25 (Over 39.5) to deliver coach Jeff Hafley his first career victory after an 0-5 start. QB Malik Willis had his best game as a Dolphin, completing 14 of 21 passes for 208 yards and 2 TDs, while also rushing for 37 yards and 1 TD on 8 runs. TE Greg Dulcich was Willis' favorite target with 5 catches for 86 yards, but it was rookie WR Caleb Douglas who had the most impactful catches, with both his receptions going for scores, including a 63 yarder. The Jets outgained the Dolphins 377 yards to 360 in a losing effort.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series vs. the Patriots 64-57. The Dolphins had won 8 of 9 previous meetings vs. the Patriots until being swept last season with New England winning 33-27 at Miami on Sept. 14, 2025, and dominating at home 38-10 on Jan. 4, 2026. It was the first time the Patriots had swept a season series from the Dolphins since 2016.
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Patriots at Dolphins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots -325 (bet $325 to win $100) | Dolphins +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots -7 (-105) | Dolphins +7 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Patriots at Dolphins key injuries
PATRIOTS
- WR A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) questionable
- RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness) questionable
- CB Carlton Davis III (neck) questionable
- LB Christian Elliss (chest) questionable
DOLPHINS
- CB JuJu Brents (neck/concussion) questionable
- G/T Kadyn Proctor (concussion) out
- CB Reese Taylor (quad) questionable
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Patriots at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
Moneyline
PASS.
Historically, the Patriots haven't had much success in Miami. They're 3-10 in their last 13 trips to South Florida. They won in Miami Gardens last season but have not won there in back-to-back seasons since winning three in a row from 2010 to 2012.
Nevertheless, I think the Patriots walk away with the win this weekend, but there's no value on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET PATRIOTS -7 (-105).
The Dolphins' offense had a breakout game against the Jets last weekend, but the defense was still a sieve. Only the offensively inept Vikings have failed to score at least 24 points against the Dolphins.
After a slow start, Maye and the New England offense has woken up, averaging 31 points across their last 4 games, well above their season average of 22.9 PPG.
Over/Under
PASS.
I got this one potentially coming in exactly at the total (depending on fluctuations). Statistically, the Patriots have a top 10 defense, but so do the Jets, and the Dolphins were able to find some success. I lean over, but I'm not ready to trust the Dolphins offense yet. The Patriots should get at least 24 points, but can the Dolphins put up 20+ points for the third straight game?
Best prop bet
BET PATRIOTS QB DRAKE MAYE 275+ PASSING AND RUSHING YARDS (+125)
Maye has surpassed this number in 3 of his past 4 games. Against this middling Dolphins defense, Maye should find some holes either through the air or by scrambling.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions
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