The Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) and Miami Dolphins (0-4) square off Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Bengals at Dolphins odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
QB Joe Burrow passed for 428 yards, but it wasn't enough to lift the host Bengals over the Jaguars (+2.5) as Jacksonville held on for a 22-17 (Under 52.5) victory last Sunday. Despite losing WR Ja'Marr Chase to a concussion in the second quarter, Burrow completed 39 of 54 passes with 1 TD and ran for a score. But he also tossed 2 costly INTs, one that the Jaguars turned into a TD and the other in the red zone. WR Tee Higgins stepped up in Chase's absence with 11
catches for 157 yards before he was injured late in the game. The Bengals abandoned their running game, rushing for 23 yards on 15 carries. While the Bengals did all their damage through the air, the Jaguars were more balanced, throwing for 212 yards and rushing for 111.
The Dolphins (+9.5) had their best defensive effort of the season last weekend, limiting the host Vikings to 5 FGs, but the offense was again a no-show in a 15-10 (Under 38.5) loss. Dolphins RB Ollie Gordon rushed for 100 yards and the only TD of the game on 9 carries, but the passing game was grounded. QB Malik Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards with 5 of those completions to WR Malik Washington, who had 67 yards. The Dolphins struggled to cover Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson, who had nearly half of Minnesota's receptions with 13 catches for 119 yards. After failing to record a sack through their first 3 games, the Dolphins had 4 vs. the Vikings.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series vs. the Bengals 18-9, but have lost two straight and four of the past six meetings. The Bengals routed the Dolphins 45-21 when they met in Miami last December. Burrow completed 25 of 32 passes for 309 yards and 4 TDs. Chase had 9 catches for 109 yards, while RB Chase Brown rushed for 66 yards and a TD on 12 carries and also caught 4 passes for 43 yards and 2 TDs.
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Bengals at Dolphins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bengals -325 (bet $325 to win $100) | Dolphins +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bengals -7 (-108) | Dolphins +7 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -112 | U: -105)
Bengals at Dolphins key injuries
DOLPHINS
- EDGE Rob Beal Jr. (hamstring) out
- WR Caleb Douglas (ankle) out
- CB Storm Duck (knee) questionable
- DL Kenneth Grant (toe) questionable
- TE Justin Joly (concussion) out
- CB Reese Taylor (quad) out
- ILB Jackson Woodard (ankle) questionable
- RB Jaylen Wright (foot) questionable
BENGALS
- LB Swayze Bozeman (groin) questionable
- WR Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) questionable
- S Bryan Cook (ankle) questionable
- S Kyle Dugger (quad) out
- WR Tee Higgins (groin/neck) questionable
- WR Colbie Young (knee) quest
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Bengals at Dolphins picks and predictions
Prediction
Bengals 24, Dolphins 20
Moneyline
PASS.
The new was trending positively for the Bengals with Chase and Higgins both full participants in practice Friday. However, that's not a guarantee either will play. Chase still needs be cleared by an independent neurologist in order to play Sunday.
If Burrow does end up playing without his top two receivers, I'd be somewhat tempted to pick the upset, but it's more logical to take the points.
Against the spread
BET DOLPHINS +7 (-110).
I think this is the week the Dolphins break past that 13-point barrier and put a scare into the Bengals.
Statistically, the Dolphins' defense has outperformed that of the Bengals. Miami is giving up an average of 335.5 total yards per game (226.5 passing / 109 rushing), while Cincinnati is at 347.5 / 248 / 99.5. The Bengals' scoring defense has been better at 21.3 ppg to the Dolphins' 25.3 ppg.
Offensively, the Bengals are easily the more talented unit, but they've been one dimensional through their first four games. The Bengals pass game ranks fifth (277.5 ypg), but the running game ranks 31st (74.3 ypg). If Chase and Higgins are both out, it stands to reason the passing attack won't be as effective.
Over/Under
PASS.
While my score prediction puts the game a hair Over, let's face facts: The Dolphins' offense is averaging a league-worst 11.5 ppg. Miami is bound to have a breakout game at some point -- and I think this could be the week -- but I'd like to see it actually happen first before putting money it.
Best prop bet
BET MALIK WILLIS 200+ PASSING YARDS (+105)
Last week was a rough one for Willis, but that was against one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Bengals, on the other hand, statistically have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Bengals S Jordan Battle claimed this week that Willis has a tell when he throws. We'll see how well that helps them. Willis surpassed 200 yards passing in two of four games this season and was at 197 in the other. Usually the Dolphins are behind and have to pass a lot.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins odds, picks and predictions
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