The Miami Heat (3-5) and Golden State Warriors (5-3) meet Thursday at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California. Tip is set for 10 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let's analyze NBA odds around the Heat vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025-26 season series: Tied 1-1 with each winning at home
The Heat beat the LA Clippers 117-116 in overtime Wednesday, failing to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite with the Under (233.5) cashing. C Bam Adebayo dropped a game-high 35 points on 14 for 20 shooting. Miami, which lost its first 4 games of the season, has won 3 of its last 4 outings. Despite that, it is just 2-6 against the spread (ATS).
The Warriors also started the season off sluggish, losing their first 3 games,
but they've ripped off 5 straight wins since. Golden State is coming off a 116-113 home win over the Phoenix Suns Monday, covering as a 2.5-point favorite as the Over (227.5) hit. G Stephen Curry dropped 34 points. Golden State is 6-2 ATS.
Watch the NBA on Fubo!
Heat at Warriors odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Warriors -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Heat +7.5 (-115) | Warriors -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 233.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Heat at Warriors key injuries
Heat
(Not yet submitted -- below was for Wednesday's game)
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) probable (he played)
Warriors
- F Jimmy Butler III (ACL) out
- F Moses Moody (patellar tendon) out
- C Kristaps Porzingis (not with team) out
- F Gui Santos (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Heat at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 123, Heat 114
Moneyline
PASS.
Avoid this play. The Warriors (-275) should win at home, especially with the Heat (+220) on the second night of back-to-back games, but are too expensive to take here.
Against the spread
BET WARRIORS -7.5 (-105).
Golden State has performed well as a favorite this season and at home. It is 3-1 ATS at home and 2-1 ATS when favored. The Warriors will also come into this as the more rested side, having not played since Monday.
The Heat, who are 1-2 ATS as an underdog, have been atrocious defensively. They've allowed at least 113 points in all 8 games and 127 points per game across their last 2 road contests. Miami is 1-3 ATS on the road.
Over/Under
BET OVER 233.5 (-110).
Both teams are trending toward the Over here.
The Warriors have gone Over in 2 straight games and are 5-1 O/U across their last 6 performances. Similarly, the Heat are 3-1 O/U in their previous 4 outings and have scored at least 117 points in each.
Best prop bet
Heat C BAM ADEBAYO UNDER 21.5 POINTS (-125).
Coach Steve Kerr will likely put F Yaxel Lendeborg on Antetokounmpo, with Adebayo drawing F Draymond Green. The former Defensive Player of the Year Green should be able to limit the Heat star. Adebayo has gone Under this total in 5 of 8 games this season.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
Access more NBA coverage:
HoopsHype | Celtics Wire | Lakers Wire | Nets Wire | Rockets Wire | Sixers Wire | Thunder Wire | Warriors Wire | Rookie Wire | List Wire
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
