The Golden State Warriors (0-3) and Denver Nuggets (1-1) meet Monday at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET (NBCSN). Let's analyze NBA odds around the Warriors vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025-26 season series: Tied 2-2, including NBA Cup game
Golden State lost 131-122 at the Phoenix Suns Saturday, covering as a 9.5-point underdog as the Over (221.5) hit. The Warriors allowed the Suns to shoot 50 of 86 (58%) from the field while giving up 60 points in the paint. The Warriors have one of the worst interior defenses in the league to start the season, giving up 55.3 points in the paint per game, ranking 26th in the NBA.
Denver escaped with a 141-135 OT win over the New
Orleans Pelicans Saturday, failing to cover as an 11.5-point home favorite while the Over (239.5) cashed. G Jamal Murray went off for 42 points, and C Nikola Jokic finished with a triple-double (35 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists). In spite of the win, the Nuggets gave up 70 points inside, so they are now giving up an average of 58 paint points per game, which is tied for worst in the league.
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Warriors at Nuggets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:19 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Warriors +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Nuggets -285 (bet $285 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +7.5 (-110) | Nuggets -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Warriors at Nuggets key injuries
Warriors
- C Charles Bassey (patellar) probable
- F Jimmy Butler III (knee) out
- G/F Moses Moody (patellar) out
- C Kristaps Porzingis (illness) out
- F/C Gui Santos (knee) questionable
- G Brandon Williams (back) probable
Nuggets
- G Alpha Diallo (wrist) doubtful
- F Cameron Johnson (ankle) doubtful
- F Spencer Jones (hamstring) out
- G Julian Strawther (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Warriors at Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 130, Warriors 120
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nuggets will pick up the win, but they are not worth the risk of backing as -285 favorites, so pass and bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
BET NUGGETS -7.5 (-110).
The Warriors' biggest need through 3 games has been upgraded center play, and that's without the Warriors even having played a truly elite center yet. Jokic could score 70 here if he wanted to, but that's not even the only advantage the Nuggets have offensively. In each of their 3 games to start the season, the Warriors have allowed a lead guard to score at least 28 points, so Murray will likely be able to go off here for the second straight night as well.
Both teams are awful when it comes to defending the paint, but Denver is worse in that aspect than Golden State, so it is possible that the Warriors keep this one close should they be able to penetrate the paint.
Over/Under
BET OVER 236.5 (-110).
Neither team can play interior defense, so scoring won't be a problem for either squad here. Jokic and Murray will be able to score at will in this matchup, but Golden State will also have a lot of opportunities to score. Warriors G Steph Curry hasn't had an explosive game yet, and this game that projects to be a shootout is the perfect opportunity for him to turn back the clock.
Also, the Over is 2-1 for the Warriors this season and is 3-1 in the last 4 matchups between these squads.
Best prop bet
Nuggets C NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 26.5 POINTS (-105).
Jokic has been extremely inefficient to start the season, shooting just 40.5% from the field and 23.5% from 3-point range, but this game is the perfect opportunity for him to have a dominant performance. The Warriors don't have any genuinely big bodies to throw at Jokic to even attempt to slow him down, and F Draymond Green simply won't be enough to truly shut down Jokic in this one. Expect that Jokic gets easier looks at the rim this game than he has thus far this season.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions
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