The Chicago Bears (3-2) are set to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) Sunday. Kickoff from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, is set for 1 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Bears vs. Falcons odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
Chicago was routed 31-7 by the Green Bay Packers in Week 5, failing to cover as a 1.5-point road favorite while the Under (47.5) cashed. Backup QB Tyson Bagent started his second consecutive game, but was benched heading into the fourth quarter after going 11-of-19 for 108 yards with 2 interceptions. He was replaced by QB Case Keenum, but he wasn't much better, throwing for just 108 yards while committing two turnovers. The Bears have now gone back-to-back weeks without
having a QB account for a TD.
Atlanta suffered a 30-23 OT loss against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football, failing to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite as the Over (43.5) hit. QB Michael Penix played well, but he got injured just before OT began and didn't return, leaving the game in the hands of backup Tua Tagovailoa. On the potential game-winning drive in OT, Tua threw an interception to end the game. Atlanta's defense also played horribly in the loss, giving up 391 yards and 24 first downs, and letting the Ravens go 3-for-4 in the red zone and 8-for-15 on third down while being led by backup QB Tyler Huntley.
Starting QB Caleb Williams, who has missed 3 straight weeks with a hamstring injury, went through a full week of practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report, but it seems likely that he will suit up. Penix is starting for Atlanta after injuring his ribs in the loss to Baltimore.
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Bears at Falcons odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:54 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bears -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Falcons -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bears -1 (-105) | Falcons +1 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Bears at Falcons key injuries
Bears
- LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) out
- LB Keyshaun Elliott (quadriceps) out
- DB Kyler Gordon (calf) questionable
- RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) out
- DL David Odeyingbo (quadriceps) out
- DB Tyrique Stevenson (hip) questionable
- DE Montez Sweat (suspension) out
- QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) questionable
Falcons
- CB C.J. Henderson (groin) out
- DE Za'Darius Smith (neck) questionable
- CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (groin) IR
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Bears at Falcons picks and predictions
Prediction
Falcons 35, Bears 21
Moneyline
BET FALCONS (-105).
The Bears have a run defense that allows just 96 yards per game, but expect that the Falcons will find more success on the ground as the Bears are missing key pieces in their front seven. Also, Bijan Robinson is by far the most talented back the Bears have seen this season, and that's something that the stats can't account for. On the outside, the Bears don't have a corner that can deal with WR Drake London.
Atlanta's defense will simply have a much easier time as the Bears' pass catchers have been underwhelming to start the season, and with RB Kyle Monangai out, Chicago's rushing attack is a bit less threatening.
If Williams can go, this turns into a LEAN in favor of the Falcons, but the Falcons would still have the edge due to the likelihood that Williams would not be as mobile as normal given that he's coming off a hamstring injury.
Against the spread
PASS.
With so many questions at QB for Chicago, I don't recommend backing them to win outright or to cover as a -1 (-105) favorite. Atlanta will cover here, but there's no point in betting on the Falcons ATS when I'm picking them to win outright.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 52.5 (-108).
The Over has hit in 3 straight games for the Falcons, who have put up an average of 34 points per game this season with Penix under center. The Over is also 3-0 in the last 3 matchups between these squads.
Chicago will have no way to contain Robinson or London, who have both been on a tear since Penix returned from injury, so look for the Falcons to continue to put up points at will. Even if the Bears are starting a backup QB, the Falcons should be able to put up enough points to help this game hit the Over.
If Williams is able to go, this turns into a full-unit bet in favor of the Over, as this Bears offense will be much more threatening with him at the helm.
Best prop bet
FALCONS WR DRAKE LONDON 100+ RECEIVING YARDS (+120)
Chicago's defensive stats look good because they have played bad offensive teams, but in reality, this is a bad defense that gave up over 30 points to both Carolina and Green Bay. In those games, Panthers WR Jalen Coker accounted for 138 yards and 1 TD, and Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden combined for 266 yards and 2 TDs. Penix's favorite target has been London, and he has put up over 100 yards in 2 of Penix's starts this season and finished with 96 yards in the other. London will go off against this awful Bears secondary.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons odds, picks and predictions
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