The Cleveland Guardians and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Monday for Game 6 of their American League Championship Series at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Best-of-7 series: Rays lead 3-2; Rays won 5-1 in regular season
After an eventful weekend, in terms of the weather, the Rays were able to withstand the storm in Cleveland and win a pair of games to push the Guardians to the brink of elimination.
In Sunday's Game 5, Rays RHP Drew Rasmussen was dominant, allowing just a single run across 7 IP to completely confuse the Guardians' hitters in a 3-1 win. The
bullpen was lights out, too. Former Guardians DH Yandy Diaz went 3 for 5 with a run scored from the leadoff spot, while 1B Jonathan Aranda was 2 for 5 with an RBI. Guardians RF Chase DeLauter provided the only RBI for the home side.
For Game 6, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said he would not thrust RHP Gavin Williams into the must-win Game 6 on short rest, so he has gotten creative, as Cleveland looks to extend its season. RHP Shawn Armstrong, who started the weather-delayed Game 4, as an opener, and who retired 4 batters in 1 1/3 scoreless IP in Game 5, will serve as the opener for Game 6.
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Guardians at Rays projected starters
RHP Shawn Armstrong vs. RHP Freddy Peralta
Armstong (2-1, 4.58 ERA) made 41 appearances all out of the bullpen in the regular season. He posted a 1.36 WHIP with 4.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9 in 35 1/3 innings.
- Last appearance (Sunday - Game 5): No-decision, 1 1/3 IP in relief, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 3-1 ALCS loss
- 2026 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 hold, (7 2/3 IP, 0 ER), 0.26 WHIP, 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1 start and 5 relief appearances
- Career postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 hold, (10 IP, 0 ER), 0.40 WHIP, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 1 start and 7 relief outings
- 2026 regular-season road splits: 1-0, 3.50 ERA (18 IP, 7 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 16 K in 21 relief appearances (0 starts)
- Career vs. Rays (regular season): 0-0, 6.92 ERA (13 IP, 10 ER), 1.77 WHIP, 17 K (11.8 K/9) in 15 outings
- 2026 vs. Rays (regular season): No-decision, 2/3 IP in relief, 3 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 11-3 road loss July 24
Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts with the New York Mets and Rays. He had a 1.33 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9 in 169 innings.
- Last start (Tuesday - Game 2 vs. Guardians): Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 3-1 in Game 2 victory
- Last appearance (Saturday - Game 5 at Guardians in relief): Hold, 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 7-3 win
- Career postseason stats (8 starts, 12 appearances): 2-3, 3.43 ERA (44 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 8 HR, 17 BB, 50 K
- 2026 regular-season home splits (17 starts): 5-5, 3.53 ERA (89 1/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 8 HR, 39 BB, 88 K
- Career vs. Guardians (3 starts, 4 appearances - regular season): 1-2, 4.00 ERA (18 IP, 8 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 8.0 K/9
Guardians at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:04 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Guardians +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Rays -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-180) | Rays -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Guardians at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 3, Rays 2
Moneyline
The GUARDIANS (+130) have been in this spot before, whether it's the regular season, when they appeared to be a non-contender, and not a serious division threat, to the ALDS, where Cleveland lost both games at home to the Chicago White Sox, only to win both games on the road to force a Game 5 at home. When the Guardians have looked dead in the water, they've revived themselves.
They're dead in the water. And, we'll find out in a hurry if the bullpen strategy works. If it can get to Williams for a Game 7, anything can happen. Are you betting against Cleveland, though? It is the Lazarus of baseball.
Run line/Against the spread
If you can't bring yourself to bring Cleveland straight up, GUARDIANS +1.5 (-180) isn't priced out of line, especially if you want/need a little insurance. That's even better if you have this as part of a multi-leg parlay.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (+100) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at best.
It's an elimination game, we're going to see runs at a premium, similar to Game 5. The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games in this series, too, all with a similar number of 6.5.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
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