The East Carolina Pirates (3-3, 1-1 American Conference) and the Memphis Tigers (5-2, 2-1) meet Thursday at the Simmons Bank Liberty Bowl in Tennessee, Memphis. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let's analyze college football odds around the East Carolina vs. Memphis odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
East Carolina leads the all-time series 18-8, and the Pirates have won the past 3 meetings, including a 31-27 victory at home last season at the Rowdy Dowdy in Greenville, North Carolina. In its most recent trip to Memphis in 2021, ECU posted a 30-29 win. The last win for Memphis in the series saw 100 combined points in a 59-41 win in Greenville in 2018.
In a strange overtime score, East
Carolina fell 30-17 at the UAB Blazers last Thursday. After UAB scored to take a 24-17 lead, Pirates QB Emory William was picked off and it was returned 80 yards for a TD and a ECU overtime loss by 13. The Under (49.5) still hung on, and it is 5-0 in the past 5 games for the Pirates. East Carolina is 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in 3 road games.
Memphis suffered a disappointing 31-17 loss at the Tulane Green Wave last Friday, coming nowhere near covering as 6.5-point favorites as the Under (55.5) cashed. The Tigers turned it over 6 times, with 3 interceptions by QB Marcus Stokes, while Memphis also lost 3 fumbles. It spoiled a great effort by RB Jaylin Carter, who rumbled for 135 yards in 23 rushing attempts.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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East Carolina at Memphis odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): East Carolina +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Memphis -420 (bet $420 to win $100)
- Against the spread: East Carolina +10.5 (-112) | Memphis -10.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 54.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
East Carolina at Memphis picks and predictions
Prediction
Memphis 34, East Carolina 20
Moneyline
Memphis (-420) will set you back more than 4 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not nearly enough reward. There is never a reason to bet such a strong favorite, especially on its own.
PASS.
Against the spread
MEMPHIS -10.5 (-108) is worth playing lightly in this American Conference tilt in the Liberty Bowl.
Proceed with caution, however, as the Tigers turned the ball over 6 times at Tulane last week. It's doubtful that Memphis is nearly as sloppy, and had it not turned the ball over so much, the Tigers might have rolled last week. Memphis piled up 488 total yards on offense, and 306 yards through the air, while holding Tulane to 325 total yards. But, a minus-4 turnover margin was too much to overcome despite a 27-12 margin in first downs. That won't happen again, and the Tigers should be much better, especially at home.
Over/Under
UNDER 54.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
East Carolina has cashed the Under in 5 in a row, while the defense has allowed 27 or fewer points in each of the past 4 games decided in regulation. Last week's game should have ended up with just 24 points had the UAB defender simply taken a knee in OT, rather than return it for the rare overtime Pick-6 despite already having the game won.
Best prop bet
Memphis RB JAYLIN CARTER - UNDER 90.5 RUSHING YARDS (-114 on FanDuel).
I am a big fan of Carter, but this is a projection that is way too high. East Carolina has a decent defense, allowing just 138.8 rushing yards per game, which is 62nd in the nation. Carter has averaged 133.5 rushing yards per game against bad defenses from UAB and Tulane. He has had 95 or more rushing yards in 5 of his 7 games, but Carter should find the sledding tough against a Pirates defense offering no quarter.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: East Carolina Pirates at Memphis Tigers odds, picks and predictions
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