The Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres meet Tuesday for Game 3 of the NLDSs at Petco Park in San Diego, California. First pitch is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Brewers vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Best-of-5 series: Brewers lead 2-0 | 2026 season series: Padres won 4-2
The Brewers are a game away from reaching the NLCS after an eventful Game 2 in Milwaukee that involved plenty of fireworks at the end. Brewers LF Jackson Chourio (1 for 4) made baseball romantic in the ninth inning, at least in Wisconsin. Down to his team's last strike, the 22-year-old Chourio knocked a bases-loaded, walk-off single Padres RHP Mason Miller, who some consider to be MLB's
best closer.
In Southern California, disappointment bleeds deeper than just that after 1B Ty France (2 for 3 in Game 2) had a ninth inning home run turn into a wild off-the-roof out in a 3-2 loss in Game 1. Padres manager Craig Stammen now has a team with its backs against the wall after what one could only consider a very unique start to the series.
The desperation the Pads will play with at home is clear. The odds are not in San Diego's favor. While the Padres were 53-30 at Petco Park this season, teams down 0-2 in a best-of-5 have only come back to win 10 times in 93 tries in MLB history.
But the Padres have this in their back pocket: San Diego swept the Brewers at home during the 2026 regular season.
Watch MLB on Fubo!
Brewers at Padres projected starters
RHP Dustin May vs. RHP Nick Pivetta
May (7-9, 4.70 ERA) made 31 appearances in the regular season. He had a 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9, 9.3 K/9 in 145.2 innings.
- Last start (Sept. 26): No-decision, 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 win vs. St. Louis Cardinals
- 2026 road splits (14 starts): 2-4, 5.88 ERA (56.2 IP, 37 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 10 HR, 20 BB, 59 K
- Postseason career (3 starts - 9 appearances): 1-0, 3.86 ERA (14.0 IP, 6 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 1 HR, 7 BB, 14 K (9.0 K/9)
- Career vs. Padres (3 starts): 1-1, 1.23 ERA (22 IP, 3 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 25 BB, 75 K
- 2026 vs. Padres (3 starts): 1-1, 22.0 IP 3 ER, 8 H, 5 BB, 22K
Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA) made 8 appearances in the regular season. He had a 1.01 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 in 34.2 innings.
- Last start (NLWC Game 2): No-decision, 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-1 win vs. Chicago Cubs Sept. 30
- 2026 home splits (5 starts): 3-1, 3.00 ERA (21.0 IP, 7 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1 HR, 6 BB, 22 K
- Postseason career (3 starts - 5 appearances): 1-1, 2.86 ERA (22.0 IP, 7 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 5 HR, 7 BB, 27 K
- Career vs. Brewers (5 starts): 1-3, 8.76 ERA (22 IP, 24 ER), 1.95 WHIP, 14 BB, 24 K in 5 starts, none in 2026
Brewers at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Monday at 10:46 p.m.
- Moneyline (ML): Brewers +115 (bet $100 to win $215) | Padres -140 (bet $135 to win $171.43)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)
Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!
Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Brewers 2
Moneyline
The PADRES (-140) does not have as much juice, but feels like a sure bet. May has had his successes against the Padres, but that's a top home atmosphere with a starter in Pivetta who has demons he will be motivated to right against the Brew Crew.
Run line/Against the spread
The PADRES -1.5 (+165) has some mustard behind it and Petco Park won't allow it to miss, considering the circumstances of the first 2 outings in this NLDS for the Pads.
Over/Under
OVER 7 (-125).
The last 5 meetings saw and even split of 2-2-1 on the total. While both pitchers have numbers to suggest the Under might play, the circumstances were not the same in those outings.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
