The Boston Red Sox (84-71) and Tampa Bay Rays (94-60) meet Sunday for the finale of their 3-game AL East series. First pitch from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Red Sox vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 6-6
The Red Sox beat the Rays 4-2 Friday to open the series and lost 2-1 Saturday, respectively closing as +114 and +130 moneyline underdogs. The total of (7) and (7.5) went Under in both games.
Boston, coming into the series, had lost 5 of its last 8 contests. It sits 5 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox for the second spot in the AL Wild Card race and 5.5 games behind the New York Yankees for the top position.
The Rays have the best record in the American League and are 8-2 across their last 10 games. They clobbered the A's and Houston Astros in their last 2 series, going 6-0 overall in those and outscoring their opponent a combined 36-12.
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Red Sox at Rays projected starters
LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. RHP Griffin Jax
Sandoval (1-6, 4.99 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.79 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 57 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in a 4-2 loss at Texas Rangers Tuesday
- Career vs. Rays: 0-3, 3.67 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 in 9 appearances (8 starts)
- 2026 road splits: 0-4, 5.60 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.79 WHIP, 3 HR, 15 BB, 34 K in 6 starts
Jax (7-10, 3.80 ERA) makes his 22nd start (33rd appearance). He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 104 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 2-1 home victory vs. A's Tuesday
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-2, 7.86 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 16 appearances (3 starts)
- 2026 home splits: 3-5, 3.76 ERA (55 IP, 23 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 9 HR, 18 BB, 72 K in 15 appearances (12 starts)
Red Sox at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:018 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Red Sox +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Rays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-170) | Rays -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Red Sox at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
BET RAYS (-150).
The Rays have won Jax's last 2 starts. They've been the second-best home team in the majors this season at 54-26. The home-field advantage and pitching edge should help them finish the series with a win Sunday.
Boston hasn't necessarily played well after a loss. The Red Sox are streaky and are 33-37 straight up following a defeat, the 11th-worst win rate. They have scored a total of 14 runs in their last 5 games, so the bats certainly are struggling as well.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
While there's some value on the Rays -1.5 (+140) to cover the spread, the better route is the more expensive moneyline option.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-120).
Neither side has been red hot offensively, and both sides have season-long Under trends.
The Rays have scored 4 runs or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games and are 1-4 O/U in those. Boston is 1-7 O/U across its last 8 games and hasn't scored more than 5 runs in a single game since September 3.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
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