In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 290 in the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET, and the main card is scheduled for an 8 p.m. ET start (all on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 290: Allen vs. Duncan odds and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Allen (27-7-0) | Duncan (15-2-0)
Allen heads into this bout with 3 consecutive victories, including a unanimous-decision win over Edmen Shahbazyan on June 6. He has gone the distance in 5 of his past 6 outings, winning 3 and losing 2. His lone finish in the span came in a Round 4 KO/TKO over Reinier de Ridder in a fight night main event Oct. 18,
2025.
Duncan is coming off a unanimous-decision win over Jared Cannonier in a fight night July 18, and he has 5 straight wins, including 3 decisions and 2 KO/TKOs. His opponents have been a little more impressive, too, as he also has a Round 1 KO/TKO of Eryk Anders, and a decision win over Roman Dolidze during the win streak.
Both fighters stand at 6-foot-2, but Duncan has a 4-inch reach advantage. CLD also has a 4.45-to-3.75 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while posting a 63.95% significant strikes accuracy percentage. Allen has a 58.87% mark in the category. Allen is much stronger on takedowns, and he'll look to get to fight to the canvas as quickly as possible. He has a 1.52 takedown average, 41.07% takedown accuracy percentage and 1.06 submission average.
Watch UFC on Paramount+
UFC Fight Night 290: Allen vs. Duncan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Allen -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Duncan -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Total Rounds: (Over 3.5 -120 | Under 3.5 -110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -180)
UFC Fight Night 290: Allen vs. Duncan picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
I like DUNCAN (-105) in this fight, which is essentially a toss-up as far as the books are concerned.
I am a sucker for a reach advantage, as I like fighters who can keep the opposition at a distance. As long as Duncan can push Allen away, and keep the fight upright, and avoid going down to the mat for long periods of time, he'll be in good shape.
Over/Under
YES (+130): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play at plus-money. Allen has gone the distance in 5 of his past 6 fights while Duncan has needed the judges to decide a victor in 4 of his past 6 bouts.
Both fighters are certainly capable of a KO/TKO win, and Allen is also capable of a submission. But, if Duncan can keep this fight upright, and slow things down, a distance play is where it's at. In fact, if you want to get a little crazier, taking DUNCAN BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+450) for the opportunity to multiply up 4.5 times is worth a roll of the dice.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 290 Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan odds, picks and predictions
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
