The Sam Houston Bearkats (1-3, 0-0 CUSA) and Liberty Flames (4-1, 1-0) meet Thursday for a Week 6 Conference USA clash. Kickoff from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia, is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU). Let's analyze college football odds around the Sam Houston vs. Liberty odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Bearkats lost to the No. 9 Texas Tech Red Raiders 49-14 Sept. 26, failing to cover as a 34.5-point road underdog with the Over (56.5) cashing. The week before, Sam Houston picked up its lone victory of the season with a 59-0 throttling of the Nicholls State Colonels. The Bearkats, despite a 1-3 record, are 3-1 against the spread (ATS) and 2-2 Over/Under. They are led by sophomore QB Landyn
Locke, who has a CUSA-best 1,168 passing yards, with 11 TDs and 3 INTs in 145 pass attempts.
Liberty is riding a 4-game winning streak after opening the season with a 20-13 loss to the James Madison Dukes. The Flames beat the Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens 30-14 Friday, covering as a 6.5-point road favorite as the Under (51.5) hit. Liberty's offense has been red hot, scoring at least 30 points in 3 straight games and covering in each of those as well. It is 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U.
This is the third meeting since Sam Houston moved up to the FBS level. Liberty won 21-16 in 2023 while Sam Houston won 20-18 in 2024.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Sam Houston at Liberty odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Sam Houston +425 (bet $100 to win $425) | Liberty -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Sam Houston +13.5 (-110) | Liberty -13.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Sam Houston at Liberty picks and predictions
Prediction
Liberty 34, Sam Houston 17
Moneyline
PASS.
Avoid this play. Liberty (-550) should win with ease, but it's too expensive to play on the moneyline.
Against the spread
BET LIBERTY -13.5 (-108).
The Flames have played 3 games as a favorite of 15 points or fewer, and they are 3-0 ATS in those. Their offense has been aided by the terrific play of RB Kam Davis, who has 457 yards on 54 carries. He should be able to dominate Thursday as Sam Houston allowed 219 yards on the ground in its last outing against Texas Tech.
The Bearkats offense hasn't shown much life this season either, scoring 21 points or fewer in 3 of 4 games, which should allow Liberty some room to pull away, especially at home. Sam Houston's leading back Alton McCaskill has just 165 yards through 4 games, so relying on Locke, who has a 66.2% completion rate, to sustain drives might not be a recipe for success.
Back LIBERTY -13.5 (-108).
Over/Under
BET UNDER 52.5 (-108).
Both defenses come into this game rolling, and that should limit scoring. Liberty has yet to allow more than 23 points in a game, and it has held its last 3 opponents to 17 points or fewer. At home, the Flames are giving up 19 points per game.
Sam Houston is the significant underdog, but has performed well defensively in this position. It is 0-2 O/U as an underdog of 10-20 points and has allowed 24 points or fewer in each of those (24 points against the Troy Trojans and 23 points against Tulsa Golden Hurricane).
Back UNDER 52.5 (-108).
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Sam Houston Bearkats at Liberty Flames odds, picks and predictions
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