The Texas State Bobcats (4-3, 2-1 Pac-12) and No. 22 Boise State Broncos (6-1, 3-0) clash Saturday in Boise, Idaho. The Pac-12 contest at Albertsons Stadium will kick off at 10 p.m. ET (CW). Let's analyze college football odds around the Texas State vs. Boise State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Texas State failed to cover as a 14.5-point favorite in a 20-17 (Under 59.5) win over Utah State last Saturday. The Bobcats managed just 20 points after scoring 66 against Colorado State the previous week. Overall, TSU is averaging 517.7 yards per game, fifth nationally, but the Bobcats head into this tussle 0-2 on the road.
Boise State scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and pulled away
for a 31-10 victory at +14.5 Washington State last Saturday. RB Dylan Riley rushed for 128 yards and 2 TDs, and the Broncos defense registered 4 sacks and 7 tackles for loss. Boise State has won 6 straight and ranks seventh nationally in rushing offense (237.9 yards per game).
Texas State and Boise State are meeting for the first time.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Texas State at Boise State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas State +340 (bet $100 to win $340) | Boise State -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas State +10.5 (-108) | Boise State -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 63.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Texas State at Boise State picks and predictions
Prediction
Boise State 35, Texas State 20
Moneyline
No interest; PASS.
Against the spread
Texas State has played just 2 road games this season. The Bobcats lost both straight up and ATS. The ATS margin in those 2 contests was minus-34. Over the last 2 seasons, TSU is 2-6 ATS on the road. Over the last 6 seasons, the Bobcats have played just 2 ranked foes; they went 0-2 ATS with an average ATS margin of -13.8 in those games.Both sides filed some early-season comp games, and the results of those contests (TSU vs. Texas, UTSA, BSU vs. Oregon, Memphis) favor ATS supremacy for the Broncos.Boise’s offense against a leaky Texas State defense makes for the clearest matchup advantage here. Using the ground game to crank out chunk plays while consistently staying ahead of the sticks, all while avoiding havoc plays, spells 2-score advantage for the home side. And with a significant 4-way edge in red-zone efficiency (both teams, both sides of the ball), that 2-score cushion has enough chance to turn into a 14- or 17-point Bronco triumph.Still, the margins here are tight. Consider a partial-unit play on BOISE STATE -10.5 (-110).
Over/Under
ATS trends and surface averages and stats point to a big score here, but the betting profit leverage is on a contrarian play.
Both of these teams love to run the ball. The defenses have strengths geared toward the success-rate category, and deficiencies in pass defense figure to be minimized. And both the Bobcats and Broncos are solid in avoiding havoc plays when cranking out their offensive plays.
On the Boise side, those plays come at a snail's pace. Per TeamRankings, BSU's 30.6 seconds per play ranks as faster than just 4 teams in all of FBS. On defense, the Broncos excel in getting off the field on third downs and in opponent red-zone trips. Expect some kicking volume for the Bobcats.
That all spells advanced-metrics Under. FanDuel Sportsbook has the leverage number here: TAKE THE UNDER 64.5 (-113).
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Texas State Bobcats at Boise State Broncos odds, picks and predictions
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