The San Diego Padres (72-62) and Tampa Bay Rays (79-54) play the first game Friday of a 3-game series in St. Petersburg, Florida. First pitch from Tropicana Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Padres vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Rays won 3-0
The Padres wrapped up their 6-game homestand at 4-2 after blanking the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-0 Wednesday as a -132 home favorite while the Under (8.5) hit. SP Randy Vásquez (1 H, 2 BB, 2 K) delivered 5 scoreless innings to earn the win, while CF Jackson Merrill went 2 for 3 with an RBI double to help lead the offense.
The Rays finished their 6-game road trip at 3-3 after blanking the Detroit Tigers 3-0 in Wednesday’s
series finale. Tampa Bay cashed as a +108 underdog while the Under (7.5) hit. SP Freddy Peralta (2 H, 0 BB, 4 K) delivered 6 scoreless innings to earn the win, while C Liam Hicks, RF Jonny DeLuca and CF Cedric Mullins each drove in a run.
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Padres at Rays projected starters
RHP Casey Mize vs. RHP Shane McClanahan
Mize (5-7, 3.44 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 104 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 0 K in 7-5 victory vs. Minnesota Twins Saturday
- Career vs. Rays: 0-1, 4.50 ERA (12 IP, 6 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 15 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 14 K (10.5 K/9) in 4 games (3 starts)
- 2026 road splits: 3-4, 3.93 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.8 K/9 in 10 starts
McClanahan (9-6, 3.10 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 107 1/3 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H (3 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 loss at Baltimore Orioles Saturday
- Only start vs. Padres: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 5 K in 6-2 loss June 16, 2023
- 2026 home splits: 7-1, 2.32 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 5 HR, 8.0 K/9 in 11 starts
Padres at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rays -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-210) | Rays -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Padres at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Padres 2
Moneyline
PASS.
If you want to play it safe, you can take Tampa Bay (-135) on the moneyline, but I'll take the plus odds on the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET RAYS -1.5 (+170).
Tampa Bay gets to come home Friday, and the pitching matchup couldn’t look much sweeter. McClanahan has been dealing all season, while Mize has been getting knocked around since joining San Diego, carrying a 7.00 ERA through his first 4 Padres starts.
That’s a dangerous combination against a Rays team that has been tough to beat at home. Tampa Bay also has some bats that have seen Mize well before, giving the Rays a chance to put pressure on him early.
San Diego has been much less reliable away from home, while Tampa Bay brings the stronger starting pitcher, a lockdown bullpen and home-field advantage to the party.
I’m expecting McClanahan to keep the Padres quiet while the Rays get after Mize. Give me Tampa Bay on the run line Friday to start the series with a statement win.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).
These 2 teams have been treating runs like they’re optional lately. San Diego has stayed Under in 8 of its last 10, while Tampa Bay is 4-1 to the Under in its last 5. Their last 4 meetings haven’t produced an Over either. Add McClanahan dealing on the mound, and I’m riding the Under for another low-scoring game Friday night.
Best prop bet
FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (+110, FANDUEL SPPORTSBOOK)
The early innings could turn into a whole lot of pitching and not much else Friday. McClanahan has been excellent this season and should give San Diego’s offense problems from the jump. Mize has struggled since joining the Padres, but Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut. With San Diego going Under in 8 of its last 10 and Tampa Bay in 4 of 5, I’m backing the First 5 Innings Under 3.5 and getting out before the bullpens arrive.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions
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