In a 5-round bantamweight bout in the main event, Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 286 at Shanghai Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China. The prelims begin at 3 a.m. ET, and the main card is scheduled for a 6 a.m. ET start (all on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 286: Nurmagomedov vs. Song odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions
.Records: Nurmagomedov (20-1-0) | Song (23-9-1)
Since a unanimous-decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili in a title fight at UFC 311, Nurmagomedov has rebounded with victories over Deiveson Figueiredo and Mario Bautista. He has gone the distance in each of his past 5 fights, winning 4.
Song fights in his native China, and he looks to carry over
the momentum from a Round 2 win over Figueiredo in a fight night main event last time out on May 30. He has gone the distance in 4 of the past 5 fights, including a 5-round main event against Chris Gutierrez on Dec. 9, 2023.
Nurmagomedov owns a 2-inch reach advantage, while Song lands more significant strikes per minute (4.34 to 3.86). Nurmagomedov is a lot more accurate on those strikes, hitting 63.94%, while Song checks in at 50.00% in the category. Nurmagomedov is much better in the takedown category, too, posting a 4.03-to-0.82 advantage, while he is also more accurate at 46.58%. Song has a 41.38% takedown accuracy rate.
On submission average, Nurmagomedov checks in at 0.24, while Song has a 0.20 mark in the category, so the difference is rather negligible there.
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UFC Fight Night 286: Nurmagomedov vs. Song odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:25 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Nurmagomedov -620 (bet $620 to win $100) | Song +460 (bet $100 to win $460)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -235 | Under +180)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -210 | No +158)
UFC Fight Night 286: Nurmagomedov vs. Song picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Backing Nurmagomedov (-620) will cost you more than 6 times your potential return, and that's just not a recommended play. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including the heavy favorite sucks all of the value out of ylur ticket.
Let's get more specific. NURMAGOMEDOV BY POINTS (-160) is still a little pricey, but that's the play. He has gone the distance in 5 straight fights, while Song has ended up needing the judges to decide a winner in 4 of his past 5 outings.
Over/Under
Over 4.5 Rounds (-235) and Yes: Fight to go the distance (-210) are both too expensive as standalone plays. Going with the latter is OK, if you want to fold it into a multi-leg parlay only.
If you really want to have additional action on this fight, consider NURMAGOMEDOV - 90+ SIGNIFICANT STRIKES (-115), as we're expecting the fight to go the distance. At 3.86 significant strikes landed per minute, if this fight goes the distance, and Nurmagomedov hits his averages, we're good.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 286 Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong odds, picks and predictions
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