The No. 20 SMU Mustangs (0-0) and the Florida State Seminoles (1-0) meet Monday at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze college football odds around the SMU vs. Florida State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
SMU leads the all-time series 1-0, winning 42-16 in Dallas on Sept. 28, 2024, in the first battle as ACC rivals. The Mustangs easily covered as 6.5-point favorites that day while the Over (46.5) cashed.
The Mustangs open as legitimate favorites to challenge for a spot in the ACC Championship Game and a trip to the FBS playoffs. However, QB Kevin Jennings needs to live up to his immense preseason expectations. He has produced
a total of 59 touchdowns across the past 2 seasons, and he has reliable targets in WRs Jalen Cooper and Yamir Knight.
The Seminoles already have a game under their belt, and they were a bit sluggish in a 34-17 win over New Mexico State in Week 0. FSU came nowhere near a cover as 31.5-point favorites, and the Under (53.5) hung on despite 17 combined points in the fourth quarter, including a TD for each team in the final 7:42.
FSU QB Ashton Daniels was so-so against the Aggies, throwing for 202 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, and he was saved by the effective running of RB Ousmane Kromah, who went for 115 yards and a score. WR Duce Robinson needs to be better, though. He had 3 grabs for 50 yards on 6 targets, and he was held out of the end zone.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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SMU at Florida State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 9:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): SMU -152 (bet $152 to win $100) | Florida State +126 (bet $100 to win $126)
- Against the spread (ATS): SMU -2.5 (-122) | Florida +2.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
SMU at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
SMU 27, Florida State 20
Moneyline
If you're a bit on the conservative side, you might consider SMU (-152), but that's not a recommended play. Generally, when betting favorites, if the line is under 3 points, you lay the little bit of points rather than paying up for a small amount of insurance.
PASS.
Against the spread
SMU -2.5 (-122) is a much smarter play laying the small amount of points. Be a little less aggressive if it gets to a flat 3 by kickoff, and if it gets up to SMU -3.5 or more, buy the extra point to get it back down to -2.5. That's the sweet spot, although I feel the Mustangs have a better quarterback, and a suffocating defense which will give Daniels and FSU fits.
Over/Under
UNDER 53.5 (-115) might be the best play on the board. Traditionally, SMU has been a high-flying offense, and defense is an afterthought, but this is a unit which can slow opposing offenses to a crawl. If FSU's opening win sleepwalking is any indication, the offense is not hitting on all cylinders quite yet.
Best prop bet
KEVIN JENNINGS OVER 264.5 PASSING YARDS (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jennings should find plenty of open spaces against a Florida State passing defense which allowed 272 passing yards to New Mexico State last weekend at The Doak. Look for Jennings and SMU to go over 300 yards through the air.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles odds, picks and predictions
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