The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders open the 2026 regular season Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Dolphins vs. Raiders odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Dolphins are in full rebuild mode, with a new general manager (Jon-Eric Sullivan), new head coach (Jeff Hafley) and new starting QB (Malik Willis), who were all with the Green Bay Packers a season ago. Willis replaces Tua Tagovailoa, who was released after 6 up-and-down injury-plagued seasons in Miami. Aside from RB De'Von Achane, who rushed for a career-high 1,350 yards and 8 TDs last season and caught 67 passes for 488 yards and 4 TDs, the skill positions
lack proven production. Gone are WR Tyreek Hill and WR Jalen Waddle, replaced by WR Malik Washington, who was Miami's third leading receiver last year with 46 catches for 317 yards and 3 TDs and WR Jalen Tolbert, who had 18 catches for 203 yards and a score with Dallas last season, along with promising rookies Caleb Douglas (Texas Tech), Kevin Coleman Jr. (Missouri) and Chris Bell (Louisville).
Hafley comes with a background in defense, and he'll have some work to do to turn around a Dolphins unit that ranked 22nd in total defense (348.8 yards allowed per game) and 24th in points (24.9 points allowed per game) last season. The secondary is the biggest question mark. The 4 projected starters in the secondary for Week 1 -- CB JuJu Brents, CB Jason Marshall Jr., S Zayne Anderson, S Dante Trader Jr. -- combined to start 6 games for their respective teams a season ago.
In Las Vegas, the Raiders also have a new head coach, with Klint Kubiak joining the organization fresh off a Super Bowl victory as the offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks. While the Raiders selected Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it's veteran QB Kirk Cousins who will draw the start for the season opener. Cousins started 10 games for the Atlanta Falcons last season, throwing for 1,721 yards, 10 TDs and 5 INTs. He'll be throwing to veteran WR Tre Tucker, who had career highs in catches (57), yards (696) and TDs (5) last season, and former Vikings WR Jalen Nailor, who has 69 catches for 1,066 yards and 11 TDs over his 4-year career. Second-year RB Ashton Jeanty will look to build off a rookie campaign that saw him rush for 975 yards and 5 TDs and catch 55 passes for 346 yards and another 5 TDs.
Defensively, the Raiders ranked middle of the pack in total defense, allowing 318 ypg, but they were 25th in points allowed per game (25.4), 1 spot behind the Dolphins. One of the big stories of the offseason was the trade of All-Pro DE Maxx Crosby to the Baltimore Ravens that fell apart due to medical concerns. There's still a potential trade in his future, but for Week 1, at least, he's a member of the Raiders ready to make life miserable for the Dolphins.
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Dolphins at Raiders odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Raiders-165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +3 (-110) | Raiders -3 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Dolphins at Raiders key injuries
Raiders
- TE Brock Bowers (knee) OUT
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Dolphins at Raiders picks and predictions
Prediction
Raiders 29, Dolphins 27
Moneyline
PASS.
Both teams are expected to be terrible this season and have similar areas of concern. It's essentially a toss-up, with the Raiders getting the 3-point bump for playing at home. The loss of Pro Bowl TE Bowers is huge for an already limited offense.
I definitely think the Dolphins could pull the nominal upset straight up, but I'd be more comfortable getting the points.
Against the spread
BET DOLPHINS +3 (-110).
This should be a close one. On paper, neither team has a major talent advantage that jumps out over the other. There's little to glean from the preseason, with key starters barely seeing any action. Willis played the first series of the Dolphins' first preseason game, leading the team on a 14-play, 93-yard TD drive and never saw the field again.
The Dolphins have won 4 of the past 5 meetings between the teams, most recently 34-19 on Nov. 17, 2024. The Raiders won the last meeting in Las Vegas, 31-28 in OT on Sept. 26, 2021.
Over/Under
BET OVER 40.5 (-108).
While the starting units all around for each team are rather underwhelming, I think the offenses have the edge in this one. Willis is seen as a potential star for the Dolphins. Whether he has the talent around him to bear that out this season remains to be seen -- though Achane is a bona fide top-tier running back. Cousins gets a fresh start in Vegas after two frustrating years in Atlanta. Though his best days are behind him, he should have enough in the tank to torch this particular Dolphins defense.
Best prop bet
BET ASHTON JEANTY MOST RUSH + RECEIVING YARDS (+275) - HARD ROCK BET
There's just so much value here. Yes, Achane (-105) is on the other sideline, but who else do the Raiders need to focus on stopping on the Dolphins offense besides Achane? Until the Dolphins prove they can throw downfield to these unknown receivers, defenses will be stacking the deck to stop Achane. The Raiders will be using Jeanty in similar fashion as to how the Dolphins use Achane. Jeanty actually had more touches than Achane last season (321 to 305). With a season under his belt, production should improve.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders odds, picks and predictions
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