The Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers meet Friday for Game 1 of the World Series at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Rays vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Brewers won 2-1 in series at home March 30-April 1, and the Over was 2-1, too
The Brewers are making their first World Series appearance since 1982, when Milwaukee was a member of the American League. They topped the California Angels in the ALCS before losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in 7 games. The Milwaukee Braves made 2 World Series appearances in 1957-58, and the city celebrated a World Series title in 1957 over the New
York Yankees. However, the Brewers franchise lost its only previous appearance.
Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP - regular season) met the Rays April 1, posting a no-decision in 6 IP with 2 ER, 4 H (1 HR), 2 BB and 7 K in an 8-2 victory.
At the time of publishing, the Rays have 'TBD' listed as their Game 1 starter, but RHP Drew Rasmussen is fully expected to start. He was traded from the Brewers to the Rays on May 21, 2021, along with a minor-league pitcher, for SS Willy Adames and RHP Trevor Richards, who is now with the Chicago White Sox organization.
Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP - regular season) faced the Brewers on April 1, posting a no-decision in 5 IP with 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K in an 8-2 road loss.
The Rays topped the Cleveland Guardians in 6 games in the ALCS to advance to the World Series, and they're hoping the third time is the charm. Tampa Bay made the World Series in 2008, losing in 4 games to the Philadelphia Phillies. And, in the COVID-19 season in The Bubble in Arlington, Texas, the Rays lost in 6 games to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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Rays at Brewers projected starters
RHP Drew Rasmussen vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski
Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA) made 30 regular-season starts. He posted a 0.91 WHIP with 1.3 BB/9, 9.9 K/9 in 172 innings.
- Last start (Game 5 - ALCS): Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-1 win at Guardians Sunday
- 2026 postseason (3 starts): 2-0, 1.29 ERA (21 IP, 3 ER), 0.76 WHIP, 13 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 23 K
- Career postseason: 2-0, 2.10 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 20 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 28 K in 4 starts and 6 relief outings
- 2026 regular-season road splits: 7-2, 2.47 ERA (87 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 0.81 WHIP, 88 K in 15 starts
- Career vs. Brewers (regular season): 0-1, 3.60 ERA (10 IP, 4 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 11 K (9.9 K/9) in 2 starts
Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA - MLB best) made 30 regular-season starts. He had a 0.80 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 13.0 K/9 in 174 2/3 innings.
- Last start (Game 1 - NLCS): No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 2-1 in home victory vs. Dodgers Oct. 11
- 2026 postseason (2 starts): 0-0, 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 9 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 11 K
- Career postseason (2 starts, 5 appearances): 2-1, 2.21 ERA (20 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 1 HR, 7 BB, 27 K
- 2026 regular-season home splits (16 starts - 1 CG): 8-1, 1.52 ERA (95 IP, 16 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 10 HR, 21 BB, 145 K
- Career/2026 vs. Rays (1 start - regular season): No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K in 8-2 home victory April 1
Rays at Brewers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:22 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays +154 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rays at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 3, Rays 2
Moneyline
The Brewers (-190) were a strong play behind Misiorowski when they opened as a moderate favorite (-160) at home in Game 1. Now, not so much.
Misiorowski hasn't had the eye-popping numbers in 2 playoff starts like he had in the regular season, but obviously the competition is much stiffer. He hasn't been tuned up, either, as he still has that 100+ mph heat. Game 1 figures to have tremendous pitching on both sides.
Run line/Against the spread
If you can't bring take Tampa Bay straight up, RAYS +1.5 (-155) isn't priced out of line, especially if you were to use a boost/promo, or toss Tampa into a multi-leg or cross-sport parlay.
In the 4 postseason games as an underdog, Tampa Bay is 4-0 on the run line with 3 outright victories.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at most, as this is a low number.
However, Rasmussen and Misiorowski are dominant pitchers, and the batters could have some extra nerves in the opener of the World Series, the biggest stage of them all. In addition, UNDER 3 RUNS - FIRST 5 INNINGS (-105) isn't a bad play, either.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions
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