Update Oct. 17, 12:22 a.m. ET: Friday's ALCS Game 4 between the Tampa Bay Rays and the host Cleveland Guardians was postponed because of rain. The series will resume Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, with Game 5 Sunday also at Progressive Field and Game 6 Monday in St. Petersburg, Florida, if necessary.
Original column below -- published Oct. 16, 5:30 a.m. ET
The Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians meet Friday for Game 4 of their American League Championship Series at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. First pitch is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / HBO Max). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Best-of-7 series: Guardians lead 2-1; Rays won 5-1 in regular
season
Cleveland picked up a 3-2 win Friday in Game 3 as a -125 home favorite in an afternoon game -- MLB moved the game to 1 p.m. ET to get ahead of an incoming weather system. That system is expected to cause rain and/or showers with a stiff, gusty cold wind all day Friday.
These teams are 2 of the final 3 remaining in the MLB postseason as the Milwaukee Brewers clinched their first World Series berth since 1982 with a 4-game NLCS sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
In Friday's ALCS game, Cleveland outhit Tampa Bay 6-3. The big blow for the Guardians was CF Petey Halpin's 2-run homer out of the 8-hole in the bottom of the fifth inning. His no-doubt homer, which turned a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead, and epic bat flip was easily the top highlight of the game.
The Rays now turn to RHP Nick Martinez, who will make his second postseason start of 2026. He allowed 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts across 3 2/3 IP in a no-decision in Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees.
The Guardians' starter is undecided for Friday, and with the weather forecast looking like the game might get postponed, we might not see baseball again until Saturday. If Game 4 does go off as scheduled Friday, LHP Joey Cantillo and RHPs Tanner Bibee and Slade Cecconi all potentially could see time on the bump.
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Rays at Guardians projected starters
RHP Nick Martinez vs. TBD
Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He posted a 1.09 WHIP with 1.3 BB/9, 5.5 K/9 in 180 innings.
- Last start (ALDS Game 3 at Yankees): No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 4-3 ALDS clincher Oct. 7 in his first-career postseason start and ninth career playoff appearance
- 2026 regular-season road splits (16 starts): 7-3, 2.38 ERA (94 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1 CG, 1.00 WHIP, 8 HR, 5.2 K/9
- Career vs. Guardians: 3-2, 4.39 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 8 games (4 starts)
- 2026 vs. Guardians: 2-0, 0.00 ERA (13 IP, 0 ER), 0.62 WHIP, 7 H, 1 BB, 9 K (6.2 K/9) in 2 starts
Rays at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Guardians -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Rays at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 3, Guardians 2
Moneyline
The RAYS (-110) are a decent play in what essentially amounts to a pick 'em line for Game 4.
Tampa Bay has Martinez set to pitch, although it's possible that ace RHP Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA), the Game 1 starter, works Saturday if Friday's game is postponed to a later date.
Run line/Against the spread
If you need a little bit of insurance and can you can't bring yourself to take Cleveland straight up, the Guardians +1.5 (-190) will set us back nearly 2 times the potential return. That's too expensive, especially since the Guardians have yet to name a starting pitcher.
AVOID.
Over/Under
UNDER 6.5 (-110) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.
The deeper we get into this series, the more the teams will likely tighten up. The offense should be more at a premium from here on out, and we'll see if the weather impacts the momentum of these teams at the plate, too.
Ballplayers are creatures of habit. If Game 4 is pushed back, that messes with their routines.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians, ppd.
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