The Miami Dolphins (1-7) and Indianapolis Colts (2-7) square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Dolphins at Colts odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
The Dolphins (+6.5) kept the Detroit Lions' top-ranked offense in check, but their own offensive struggles continued in a 19-9 (Under 51) home loss last Sunday. The Dolphins were held to 228 total yards as a gimpy QB Malik Willis completed 13 of 25 passes for 128 yards with an INT and scrambled twice for 7 yards. It was later revealed he's been dealing with a groin injury and was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. RB Ollie Gordon II contributed 55 yards on 16 carries.
The Colts rallied to take a 23-20 lead with 1:37 left, but it took the Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) just 29 seconds to grab the lead back, going 65 yards in 4 plays for the winning score to send Indianapolis to its fifth straight loss 27-23 (Under 51.5). QB Daniel Jones completed 20 of 34 passes for 180 yards and 1 TD with 1 INT. RB Jonathan Taylor ran for 45 yards on 13 carries, while RB Seth McGowan added 45 yards and 1 TD on 6 carries. Despite the close score, the Cowboys dominated the stat sheet, controlling the ball for more than 35 minutes and outgaining the Colts 508 yards to 271.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series vs. the Colts 48-30. The Colts have won 3 straight in the series and 9 of the last 11 meetings. The Colts dominated in a 33-8 victory to open the 2025 season, scoring on every possession. Jones completed 22 of 29 passes for 272 yards with 1 TD and also ran for 26 yards and 2 TDs on 7 carries.
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Dolphins at Colts odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Colts -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +4 (-108) | Colts -4 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 37.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Dolphins at Colts key injuries
DOLPHINS
- WR Chris Bell (knee) doubtful
- C Aaron Brewer (concussion) out
- QB Malik Willis (groin) out
COLTS
- TE Mo Alie-Cox (groin) out
- LB Jaylon Carlies (neck) out
- LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (knee) out
- LS Luke Rhodes (hamstring) out
- DT Jerry Tillery (calf) out
- T Jalen Travis (knee) out
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Dolphins at Colts picks and predictions
Prediction
Colts 16, Dolphins 14
Moneyline
PASS.
If Willis were healthy, I may have picked the Dolphins for the upset as the Colts went into fire-sale mode over the past 2 weeks, trading G Quenton Nelson, DT DeForest Buckner, WR Keenan Allen and WR Josh Downs, though they did end up retaining Jones and Taylor despite rumors to the contrary.
New Dolphins starting QB Kyle McCord, a second-year player out of Syracuse and former sixth-round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles, is a huge question mark, having never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. But some might say he can't be much worse than Willis, whose passer rating (76.1) ranked 28th among qualifying QBs and passing yards (1,396) ranked 26th. The Dolphins will also be without their starting center.
Against the spread
BET DOLPHINS +4 (-108).
Despite the uncertainty at QB for the Dolphins, I'll take the points, because as bad as Willis has been in Miami, Jones has been worse, with a QB rating of 68.9 (31st in the league). He's thrown 6 TD passes, the same as Willis, but also has 10 INTs. And now he's lost his top 2 receivers.
The Dolphins defense has been surprisingly decent, ranking 13th in the NFL in total defense at 326.1 yards per game (YPG), though they did lose DT Zach Sieler for the season this week. That could be a position the Colts try to attack.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 37.5 (-110).
I'd expect both teams to try to lean on their running games in this one. The Dolphins are averaging a respectable 117.5 YPG on the ground, while the Colts are just a touch below at 115.2 YPG. The Colts' defense has been dreadful this season, giving up an average of 361.8 YPG and 27.7 points per game, but I'm not sure how much a Dolphins offense that is averaging 15.8 PPG will be able to take advantage.
Best prop bet
Bet Dolphins RB OLLIE GORDON II ANYTIME TD (+110).
After rushing for a TD in 4 straight games, Gordon has been kept out of the end zone in the last 2. But he should find a little more running room against a Colts defense that is giving up 137 YPG on the ground (30th in the NFL). And I fully expect the Dolphins to feed their second-year RB in light of their QB situation.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts odds, picks and predictions
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