The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) and No. 4 UCLA Bruins (9-0, 6-0) tussle Friday night in a Big Ten contest in Pasadena, California. The opening kickoff at Rose Bowl Stadium will be 9 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze college football odds around the Illinois vs. UCLA odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Illinois extended its winning streak to 4 games with a 24-13 home victory over the -4.5 Nebraska Cornhuskers last Friday. QB Katin Houser passed for 292 yards and 3 TDs, the most passing yards Nebraska has allowed this season. WR Collin Dixon added 129 receiving yards and 2 TDs as the Illini became bowl-eligible for the third straight season.
UCLA remained unbeaten with a 34-20 victory at the
+3.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers last Saturday and is No. 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Bruins and Golden Gophers were tied 17-17 early in the fourth quarter before QB Ty Dieffenbach connected with WR Aidan Mizell on a pair of 75-yard TD passes to pull UCLA away. The Bruins have opened 9-0 for the first time since 1998 and leads the nation with 27 takeaways.
The all-time series is tied 6-6. The last Illinois-UCLA meeting was a low-level 2011 bowl game.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Illinois at UCLA odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:16 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Illinois +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | UCLA -400 (Bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Illinois +10.5 (-120) | UCLA -10.5 (+100)
- Over/Under (O/U): Over 47.5 (-120) | Under 47.5 (+100)
Illinois at UCLA picks and predictions
Prediction
UCLA 31, Illinois 20
Moneyline
No interest; PASS.
Against the spread
UCLA is 9-0 ATS, including 5-0 ATS at home and 4-0 ATS in games when favored by double digits.
UCLA’s advantage starts with its sustained offensive efficiency being pitted against an Illinois defense vulnerable through the air. The Bruins rank highly in overall success rate, while the Illini scuffle defensively in that same stay-ahead-of-the-sticks measure. That UCLA offense-vs.-Illinois defense advantage fits in both the passing and running games. That creates multiple paths for the Bruins to extend drives.
Let's add in finishing drives. Neither side comes out smelling like a rose with its offensive inside-the-20 numbers. But the defenses have filed some juxtaposed figures for sure. UCLA's defense has yielded 6s 52.% of the time; the Illini have yielded TDs 66.7% of the time (16th Big Ten).
The common-opponent comparison favors UCLA: Against the Maryland Terrapins, Michigan State Spartans and Purdue Boilermakers, the Bruins went 3–0 ATS with an average winning margin of 27.7 points; Illinois went 1–2 ATS and was outscored by 3 overall.
Illinois has filed disappointing West Coast ATS losses each of the last 2 seasons.
BACK THE BRUINS -10.5 (+100).
Over/Under
Neither side plays all that fast, and both offenses can stall near the goal line too often. But the Over is the lean in this meeting.
The Over case rests on UCLA exploiting Illinois’ defensive efficiency gaps. And last week Dieffenbach threw for 303 yards and 3 TDs on only 16 attempts. So, there is some explosiveness there.
Short fields offer another route. UCLA creates havoc on approximately 21% of defensive plays, which ranks seventh nationally. Look for the Illini to possibly sped up in being down a couple scores late and for some short-field advantage for the home side.
TAKE THE OVER 47.5 (-120).
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Illinois Fighting Illini at UCLA Bruins odds, picks and predictions
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