The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans meet for NFL Week 1 action Sunday. Kickoff from Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas, is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Bills vs. Texans odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
Buffalo entered the 2025 playoffs looking to cruise through the AFC in a year when Cincinnati, Baltimore and Kansas City were all missing from the playoffs. Instead, the Bills lost 33-30 in OT in the Divisional Round to the Denver Broncos off the back of 4 turnovers by QB Josh Allen. Following the loss, the Bills decided to part ways with head coach Sean McDermott, naming offensive coordinator Joe Brady as his replacement. In the offseason, the Bills also made a big trade for Chicago
Bears WR DJ Moore, with the hopes that these moves will be enough for the Bills to get over the hump and make a Super Bowl.
Houston had a similarly disappointing end to its playoffs last season, losing 28-16 in the Divisional Round to the New England Patriots thanks to 4 INTs from QB C.J. Stroud. After having one of the league's best defenses in the 2025 season, the Texans still made that unit better in the offseason with the addition of S Reed Blankenship and rookie DT Kayden McDonald. On the offensive side, the Texans made much-needed improvements to the offensive line and brought in Detroit Lions RB Davis Montgomery to be the main back behind that bolstered unit. Montgomery, who was the backup behind Jahmyr Gibbs, totaled 716 rushing yards and 8 TDs in 2025.
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Bills at Texans odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Bills -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Texans +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): Bills -1.5 (-108) | Texans +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Bills at Texans key injuries
Bills
- DB Jordan Hancock (quad) questionable
- RB Ty Johnson (hamstring) questionable
- DL T.J. Sanders (knee) questionable
Texans
- WR Tank Dell (knee) on IR
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Bills at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Texans 24, Bills 17
Moneyline
BET TEXANS (+105).
Buffalo made a big move to get Moore, but with 3 elite corners on the other side, it will likely be a rough debut outing for him. Also, this Bills offensive line is just a little bit worse than last year's unit that allowed 8 sacks against this Houston front, while the Texans' front-7 has gotten better on paper. On the other side, this Texans offense that was its weakness, got better in the offseason, while Buffalo's defense has a lot of question marks surrounding it now that McDermott is no longer leading that unit.
Against the spread
PASS.
This will be a close game, but the Texans have the better roster and a defense that can make any QB look average. The Texans will cover ATS here, but it is not worth paying the premium just to protect against a 1-point loss. Pass and bet on the moneyline and/or total instead.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 44.5 (-110).
No matchup between these squads has eclipsed 45 points since 2015, dating back to the previous 5 matchups, in which the Texans are 4-1. The Texans have only allowed the Bills to score over 20 points in 1 of those last 5 meetings, a 2021 matchup in which they lost 40-0. Since then, the Texans are 2-0 against Buffalo, picking up 9 sacks and forcing 2 turnovers across those past 2 matchups.
Best prop bet
BET JAMES COOK OVER 74.5 RUSHING YARDS (-115).
The Bills' offense has not looked good in the last 2 matchups against Houston, but the one constant has been James Cook. He rushed for 116 yards against Houston in 2025 and 82 in 2024, and he will be primed to have similar output here, as Buffalo's passing attack should struggle.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans odds, picks and predictions
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