The New England Patriots (4-2) and Chicago Bears (4-2) square off on Thursday Night Football at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Patriots at Bears odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
QB Drake Maye threw at least 3 TD passes for the third straight game as the Patriots (-6.5) fended off the visiting New York Jets 26-19 (Over 42.5) last Sunday. Maye completed 18 of 32 passes for 235 yards with TD passes to WR DeMario Douglas, WR Romeo Doubs, who injured his shoulder on the catch and didn't return, and TE Hunter Henry. The Patriots ran for 148 yards, led by Corey Kinder with 57 yards on 11 carries. The Patriots held the Jets to 3 of 10
on third downs, 0 of 2 on fourth downs and kept them scoreless in 3 red-zone possessions.
After missing 3 games with a hamstring injury, QB Caleb Williams returned to the lineup and completed 30 of 36 passes for 305 yards and 1 TD as the Bears (-1.5) held off a furious fourth quarter rally by the host Atlanta Falcons to win 31-23 (Over 51.5) last Sunday. Bears RB D'Andre Swift ran for 44 yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries, while RB Roschon Johnson also ran for a TD and led the team with 51 yards on 13 carries. Despite 5 sacks by the Bears, Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. stayed upright long enough to complete 19 of 33 passes for 225 yards and 3 TDs. Bears CB Kyler Gordon had 3 of the sacks and also forced 2 fumbles. The Bears held Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, the NFL's leading rushing coming into the game, to 61 yards on 9 carries.
The Patriots lead the all-time series vs. the Bears 11-5, winning 6 of the last 7 and 10 of the last 12 matchups since losing Super Bowl XX. The Patriots won the last meeting 19-3 on Nov. 10, 2024, in Chicago, with Maye and Williams both starting as rookie QBs. Maye completed 15 of 25 passes for 184 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT, while Williams completed 16 of 30 passes for 120 yards and was sacked 9 times.
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Patriots at Bears odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:58 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Bears -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +3 (-118) | Bears -3 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Patriots at Bears key injuries
PATRIOTS
- WR A.J. Brown (ankle) questionable
- C Ben Brown (knee) doubtful
- CB Carlton Davis III (neck) questionable
- WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) out-IR
- OT Morgan Moses (ankle) questionable
- G Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) doubtful
BEARS
- LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) questionable
- G Jonah Jackson (hip) questionable
- RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) questionable
- LB Jack Sanborn (concussion) questionable
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Patriots at Bears picks and predictions
Prediction
Bears 23, Patriots 20
Moneyline
BET BEARS (-160).
Williams looked no worse for wear in his return from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss 3 games. That's great news for the Bears as they get set to take on one of the better defensive units in the NFL.
After a slow start to the season, Maye has had an October to remember. In the first 3 games of the season, Maye had 1 TD and 6 INTs, but he's turned things around in October with 10 TDs and 1 INT as the Patriots have reeled off 3 straight victories, including a 29-26 comeback at the Buffalo Bills.
I'm expecting a close Bears win that could come down to a FG at the end, so rather than give the points, I'll take the Bears moneyline.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Best prop bets
Against the spread
PASS.
This is the rare situation where I could see betting the Bears moneyline and taking Patriots +3, or buying it up to +3.5 to avoid a potential push, that's how close I expect the game to be.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 50.5 (-110).
Some folks are expecting a shootout between Williams and Maye, but the Patriots' offensive line injuries are a concern.
While both teams rank top 10 in total offense, they also rank top 10 in total defense and scoring defense. While I'm not predictng a defensive struggle, I'm also not expecting offensive fireworks. It should land somewhere in the middle and keep this Under.
Best prop bet
BET BOTH TEAMS TO MAKE 2+ FIELD GOALS (+260).
I can see this as a game where both teams can move the ball between the 20s but have to settle for field-goal attempts.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears odds, picks and predictions
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