The Detroit Pistons (8-3) travel south to visit the Miami Heat (6-6) Saturday. Tip-off from Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, is set for 8 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let's analyze NBA odds around the Pistons vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Pistons lead 1-0
Detroit survived a double-overtime battle against the Washington Wizards on Thursday, coming away with a 144-140 win while failing to cover as a 9.5-point road favorite with the Over (223.5) hitting. G Cade Cunningham had a career night, finishing with 52 points on 16-of-25 shooting with 11 assists and 0 turnovers to lead the Pistons to the win. The Pistons have scored at least 122 points in each of their last 3 wins.
Miami picked up a 133-121
win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday, covering as a 2.5-point home favorite with the Over (234.5) cashing. F Giannis Antetokounmpo and C Bam Adebayo combined for 74 points and 23 rebounds while guards Davion Mitchell and Ryan Conwell combined for 42 points and 19 assists in the win. Only 4 other Miami players scored in the game, combining for just 17 points.
The Pistons beat the Heat 128-111 back on Oct. 23, covering as 2.5-point road favorites while the Over (235.5) hit. Antetokounmpo dropped 36 in that game, but the Heat played abysmal defense, as they allowed the Pistons to shoot 53% from the floor and 47% from 3-point range en route to 18 made threes.
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Pistons at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pistons -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Heat +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pistons -3.5 (-115) | Heat +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Pistons at Head key injuries
Pistons
- C Jalen Duren (hamstring) out
- G Isaiah Joe (hip) out
Heat
- F Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) probable
- G Pelle Larsson (illness) doubtful
- G Klay Thompson (ankle) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Pistons at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Pistons 115, Heat 108
Moneyline
PASS.
The Pistons have been the more consistent and impressive team, and they will likely cover here as -175 favorites because of their elite defense. However, the Pistons are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites, so pass and bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
LEAN PISTONS -3.5 (-115).
Conwell and Mitchell both had career games while Giannis and Bam had their best game as a duo all at the same time against Cleveland. But that is not sustainable. When these squads played earlier in the season, the Pistons shut down everyone but Giannis, and I expect to see more of the same here. Expect that Giannis has his way but has very little help, which will make it impossible for the Heat to cover.
This is a lean because Adebayo has been better offensively lately, finishing with 18 or more points in 4 of his last 5 games and even eclipsing the 30-point mark twice during that span. His offense could be the key to Miami covering, but with this being the second night of a back-to-back after he just went off in his last game, I don't expect him to have an offensive showcase here.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 229.5 (-115).
The Heat had a phenomenal offensive day against Cleveland, but even still, their scoring was based solely on the production of 4 guys. Again, that's not a sustainable way to put up points in the NBA. Role players are always unpredictable and inconsistent, especially for this Heat team, so expect to see a regression to the mean here in terms of bench scoring that will allow the Under to hit.
The Under has hit in 4 of Miami's last 5 games overall and is 3-2 in Detroit's last 5 road games. The Under has also hit in 2 of the last 3 meetings between these squads.
Best prop bet
Heat F GIANNIS ANTETOKOUNMPO OVER 27.5 POINTS (-120).
In their first matchup this season, Giannis dropped 36 on the Pistons, and he has put up at least 28 points against the Pistons in each of his last 6 full matchups against them. This season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.5 points per game on over 19 shots per game, and he has taken at least 19 shots in 4 of his last 5 games vs. Detroit. Giannis will have plenty of opportunities to score here, and for as good as the Pistons are defensively, they don't have anyone who can matchup with Giannis.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions
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