The Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) and Atlanta Braves (94-68) meet Tuesday in Game 1 of the best-of-3 NL Wild Card series. First pitch from Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia, is at 2 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's analyze MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves won 9-4, going 4-2 at home
The Phillies clinched the final Wild Card on the last day of the regular season, beating the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 Sunday as -207 favorites with the Over (6.5) cashing. It snapped a 4-game losing streak. SP Zack Wheeler allowed 1 run in 6 innings for his 14th win, and RF Bryce Harper and 3B Edmundo Sosa each homered.
The Braves won the NL East and are the No. 3 seed in the NL postseason.
They closed out the regular season losing 4 of their final 6 games, including the regular-season finale Sunday 5-3 to the Miami Marlins as +105 road underdogs with a push for the total (8). SP JR Ritchie allowed 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings and fell to 1-5. 3B-LF Mauricio Dubon went 2 for 4 with a homer and 2 runs driven in.
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Phillies at Braves projected starters
LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. LHP Chris Sale
Luzardo (14-5, 2.86 ERA) made 29 starts and 1 relief appearance this season. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 179 2/3 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 0 K in 7-3 home win vs. Tampa Bay Sunday
- Last start: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 1-0 home win over the Braves Sept 7
- Career vs. Braves: 4-4, 2.89 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 in 11 starts
- 2026 road splits: 9-0, 1.76 ERA (92 IP, 18 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 15 starts
Sale (14-9, 2.16 ERA) made 27 starts. He had a 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 162 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 3-2 10-inning home win over Cincinnati Reds Wednesday
- Last start vs. Phillies (Sept. 11): No-decision, 7 IP, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K in 6-5 11-inning win in Atlanta
- Career vs. Phillies: 5-2, 3.27 ERA (66 IP, 24 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 11 starts
- 2026 home splits: 8-3, 1.66 ERA (87 IP, 16 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 in 14 starts
Phillies at Braves odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Braves -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-135) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Braves 3
Moneyline
The Phillies went 21-8 in Luzardo's starts and won his final 7 starts. They went 17-2 over his final 19 starts and 13-2 in his 15 road starts. He allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 23 starts.
The Braves won Sale's last 4 starts of the season and went 17-10 when he pitched.
The Phillies went 31-38 against teams with at least a .500 record and were 4-9 against the Braves, while the Braves went 52-29 at home in the regular season and were 43-29 against teams with non-losing records.
This should be a pitchers' duel, but Luzardo, who was 9-0 on the road and shut out the Braves earlier this month, gets the edge.
BET PHILLIES (+165).
Run line/Against the spread
Of the Phillies' last 26 covers, 24 were outright wins, according to Teamrankings.com. Nine of the Braves' last 11 ATS losses were outright losses.
With a chance for bigger money on the Phillies ML with Luzardo on the mound, PASS.
Over/Under
Eight of the 13 regular-season meetings had totals or 8 or more.
Six of the Phillies' last 9 games had totals above 6, and so did 11 of the Braves' final 15.
BET OVER 6.5 (-120).
Best prop bet
Braves CHRIS SALE UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS (-140)
Sale struck out 10 in his final start of the season, but had 7 or fewer in 3 of his final outings and in 15 of his 27 regular-season starts. In 10 career postseason appearances, he has reached 8 Ks only once.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions
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