The No. 22 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1, 0-1 Big Ten) face the Northwestern Wildcats (2-1, 0-1) Friday in the inaugural game at the new $875 million Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze college football odds around the Penn State vs. Northwestern odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Penn State was upset 24-20 by the unranked Wisconsin Badgers last week in a game where the Nittany Lions went up 17-0 early before failing to cover as 9.5-point home favorites as the Over (43.5) cashed. The Nittany Lions really felt the loss of WR Koby Howard, with Chase Sowell (6 receptions, 70 yards) being the only Penn State WR to catch a pass in the loss. QB Rocco Becht
finished just 12 of 29 for 114 yards with a INT as Penn State's offense only scored 1 TD, which came thanks to great field position after an interception from the defense.
Northwestern put up a great fight against the No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers, losing 29-23 while covering as a 20.5-point road underdog as the Over (49.5) hit. QB Aidan Chiles carried the Wildcats offensively, accounting for 293 passing yards and 2 TDs while also rushing for a TD. Northwestern's downfall came in the trenches on both sides, as on offense the Wildcats were only able to rush for 32 yards on 27 carries, and defensively they allowed the Hoosiers to rush for 271 yards and 2 TDs on 40 carries.
Since the series started in 1993, Penn State leads 16-6, but Northwestern won 22-21 last season in State College.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Penn State at Northwestern odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Penn State -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Northwestern +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): Penn State -2.5 (+115) | Northwestern +2.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Penn State at Northwestern picks and predictions
Prediction
Penn State 17, Northwestern 15
Moneyline
BET PENN STATE (-140).
Penn State's offense was awful against Wisconsin, but Northwestern's run game was even worse against Indiana and has been consistently awful this season. Since the season opener against the South Dakota State Jackrabbits, the Wildcats have not had a rusher eclipse 50 rushing yards, and they clearly have not decided who the RB1 is. Chiles and this passing attack have been good enough to keep the Wildcats afloat, but that passing game simply won't be better than a Penn State passing defense that is allowing a Big Ten-best 126.3 passing yards per game and has come up with 5 interceptions.
Against the spread
LEAN NORTHWESTERN +2.5 (-102).
All of Penn State's offensive success against Wisconsin came off the back of the defense, and if that defense doesn't come up with a Pick-6 along with 2 more interceptions, the Nittany Lions would never have had that 17-0 cushion that they blew. With Howard likely still out for this matchup, don't expect things to look any better for Penn State's offense here.
This will likely be a very low-scoring affair in which Northwestern's defense will be able to find success and put its offense in advantageous situations, which should give the Wildcats a few opportunities to keep this one close.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 45.5 (-110).
The Wildcats can't run the ball, and the Nittany Lions can't pass the ball, so both defenses will know exactly what to key in on for the majority of the game. Expect this to be a sloppy, slow, defensive ball game where there are more punts and/or turnovers than scores. Penn State's defense will likely shut down Northwestern's offense, and the Nittany Lions' offense more than likely won't look much better as they just don't have many playmakers.
The Under has hit in 3 of the last 4 matchups between these squads, and Northwestern has covered the spread in 2 of those 3 games in which the Under cashed.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcats odds, picks and predictions
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