The No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1, 5-1 Big 12) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3, 4-2) battle in a Big 12 matchup Saturday at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Kickoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let's analyze college football odds around the Texas Tech and Oklahoma State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Texas Tech QB Thomas Castellanos threw a career-high 5 TD passes, including the game-winning score to WR Kenny Johnson with 2:44 remaining, as the Red Raiders rallied for a 53-48 (Over 68.5) victory over visiting West Virginia (+16.5) last Saturday. West Virginia jumped ahead 48-41 in the third quarter after trailing 41-27 at the half, but Texas Tech shut out the Mountaineers
12-0 in the final quarter. In addition to completing 18 of 27 passes for 362 yards, Castellanos also ran for 102 yards on 23 carries. Texas Tech RB J'Koby Williams rushed for 160 yards and 1 TD on 19 carries. The teams combined for 1,220 yards of total offense (Texas Tech 638, West Virginia 582).
Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker became the first Bowl Subdivision player with 4 TD passes, a rushing TD and a receiving TD since Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong in 2021 as the visiting Cowboys (-7.5) dominated Kansas State 66-28 (Over 64) last Saturday. Mestemaker completed 22 of 28 passes for 313 yards with 1 INT in addition to his quartet of TD tosses. Oklahoma State RB Caleb Hawkins also had a big game with 175 yards rushing and 3 TDs on 20 carries and 6 catches for 71 yards and 1 TD. Oklahoma State outgained Kansas State 565 yards to 327.
Texas Tech leads the all-time series vs. Oklahoma St. 25-24-3. Texas Tech has won the last 2 meetings, including 42-0 last October in Lubbock, Texas.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Texas Tech at Oklahoma State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Texas Tech +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Oklahoma State -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +3.5 (-110) | Oklahoma State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 73.5 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas Tech 45, Oklahoma State 38
Moneyline
BET TEXAS TECH (+140).
Texas Tech, ranked 12th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, has won 2 straight since its inexplicable loss at Cincinnati. Without a chance at a signature win, they can't afford another loss. It will likely be a back-and-forth offensive shootout, but I'll take the plus-money on Texas Tech.
Against the spread
PASS.
If you want to play it safer, there's no shame in taking Texas Tech +3.5, but it should be noted that only once in the last 21 games between the teams has the result been decided by a FG or less.
Over/Under
BET OVER 73.5 (-108).
You might think this is a high number, but 14(!) of the last 25 games between these schools have gone Over this total and 2 others hit 72. When these two teams get together at least one of them forgets how to play defense. Consider that the winning team has scored at least 41 points in 13 of the past 14 matchups. Texas Tech has scored at least 31 points in 11 of the last 12 meetings and LOST 7 of those meetings in which they hit or surpassed that total. Texas Tech is giving up an average of 24.1 PPG and Oklahoma State is allowing 27.2 PPG this season.
Best Prop Bet
BET Texas Tech QB THOMAS CASTELLANOS 100+ RUSHING YARDS (+195).
Texas Tech turned to Castellanos as starter to help jump start the offense following its loss to Cincinnati, and while he struggled passing in his first game against Arizona, he had no such issues last week against West Virginia. But what really makes Castellanos dangerous is his running ability. In each of his 2 starts, Castellanos has surpassed 100 yards rushing. Oklahoma State's defense ranks in the bottom half of the Big 12, giving up at average of 384 YPG, including 151.3 YPG rushing.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys odds, picks and predictions
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