The Florida State Seminoles (1-1) and No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) square off Saturday at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Let's analyze college football odds around the Florida State at Alabama odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Florida State lost at home Sept. 7 as SMU (-2.5) kicked a 20-yard FG with 21 seconds left to lift the Mustangs to a 27-24 (Under 51) victory. The game was delayed more than 90 minutes due to a power outage at Doak Campbell Stadium. Once the lights came on, the Seminoles defense had few answers for SMU QB Kevin Jennings, who threw for a career-high 430 yards and 3 TDs. While FSU, led by RB Ousmane
Kromah (116 yards, 22 carries), gained 199 yards on the ground, the passing attack had less success with QB Ashton Daniels completing 12 of 23 passes for 125 yards and 1 TD.
Trailing the Kentucky Wildcats 17-13 at halftime, Alabama (-9.5) dominated the second half to cruise to a 45-17 (Over 47) road victory last Saturday. After running for just 5 yards in the first 2 quarters, Alabama's ground game took control, running for 150 yards in the second half. RB Daniel Hill led the way with 18 carries for 104 yards and a TD. Alabama QB Keelon Russell completed 16 of 23 passes for 188 yards and a TD to WR Rico Scott, but also tossed 2 interceptions. Alabama held Kentucky to 209 total yards (146 passing, 63 rushing).
Alabama leads the all-time series 3-1-1, but FSU (+13.5) bested them in their last meeting, stunning the Crimson Tide 31-17 (Under 48.5) in their season opener in Tallahassee, Florida, last September. The unranked Seminoles ran roughshod over the No. 8 Crimson Tide with 230 yards rushing, while holding Alabama to 87 yards on the ground.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Florida State at Alabama odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:51 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida State +850 (bet $100 to win $850) | Alabama -1200 (bet $1200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Florida State +19 (-110) | Alabama -19 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Florida State at Alabama picks and predictions
Prediction
Alabama 44, Florida State 20
Moneyline
PASS.
FSU is in complete disarray and could be looking for a new head coach soon after firing athletic director Mike Alford. Alabama will be out to avenge last year's loss and I don't expect this one to be particularly close. With no value for Alabama straight up, let's move on to the spread.
Against the spread
BET ALABAMA -19 (-110).
The line opened at 15.5 and has swelled as high as 19.5 at some books. It's probably still too low.
While FSU's ground game has excelled through it's first 2 games, amassing 416 yards, they've been much less impressive through the air. Daniels, playing for his third school in 3 years has completed 29 of 50 passes (58%) for 327 with 2 TDs and 1 INT. He was QB for the Auburn Tigers' 27-20 loss vs. Alabama last November, completing 18 of 39 passes for 259 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT and rushing for 108 yards.
Albeit against a couple of clearly inferior opponents, Alabama ranks fourth in the nation against the run, giving up an average of 32.5 rushing yards per game.
This could -- and should -- be a breakout game for Russell, who hasn't had to do much through the Crimson Tide's first 2 games. The FSU defense has struggled against the pass in both their games this season. They were shredded by SMU, and New Mexico State Aggies QB Trey Hedden threw for 272 yards a 2 TDs vs. the 'Noles in the season opener.
Over/Under
BET OVER 48.5 (-110).
Unlike the spread, the total has shrunk after opening at 52.5. I think Russell is going to have a big game and Alabama could approach this total on their own. FSU should be able to put a few scores on the board to push this Over.
Best Prop Bet
BET ALABAMA OVER 34.5 POINTS (-102)
Simply put, I don't believe FSU's defense is very good and Alabama should have its way with them.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide odds, picks and predictions
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