The Iowa State Cyclones (1-0) and the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes (1-0) meet Saturday at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Let's analyze college football odds around the Iowa State vs. Iowa odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Iowa leads the all-time series 46-25, although Iowa State has won the past 2 installments, and 3 of the past 4 encounters. The Cyclones have won the past 2 trips to Iowa City, too, including a 20-19 nail-biter on Sept. 7, 2024. The road team has covered the past 5 meetings since Sept. 11, 2021, with the Under going 6-1 in the past 7 in the series, and 7-2-1 across the previous 10 meetings since Sept. 12, 2015.
Iowa State opened with a 38-10
win over SE Missouri State last week, although it missed the cover of -29.5 while the Under (52.5) came in. The Cyclones posted 108 rushing yards and 195 passing yards while going plus-2 in turnover differential. QB Jaylen Raynor threw for 184 yards and 2 TDs while running for 2 more scores. RB Aiden Flora topped the charts with 45 rushing yards and a TD. WR Dominic Overby led the way with 2 receptions for 85 yards, including the game's longest play from scrimmage on a 45-yard catch.
Iowa handled Northern Illinois 40-0, and it easily covered as 31.5-point favorites. The Under (44.5) also cashed, as the Hawkeyes defense held a toothless NIU offense to just 7 first downs and 120 total yards while going plus-1 in turnover margin. QB Hank Brown was a so-so 12 of 20 for 129 yards and 1 TD, while RB Kamari Moulton did most of the heavy lifting with 183 rushing yards and 2 scores.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Iowa State at Iowa odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Iowa State +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Iowa -625 (bet $625 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Iowa State +14 (-110) | Iowa -14 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Iowa State at Iowa picks and predictions
Prediction
Iowa 24, Iowa State 16
Moneyline
Iowa (-625) will cost you more than 6 times your potential return, and there is never a reason to justify backing such a heavy favorite, let alone in a rivalry game. The Hawkeyes were impressive last week, sure, but they're a bit overpriced considering they dominated an NIU team with just 4 returning starters on offense and none on defense.
PASS.
Against the spread
IOWA STATE +14 (-110) is a solid play catching 2 touchdowns, as it is a rivalry game and these CyHawk battles are always close, regardless of the personnel.
In addition, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the past 5 in the series. The last time we had a double-digit favorite, Iowa covered as a 15.5-point favorite in a 42-3 rout in I-City on Sept. 10, 2016, but I think the Hawkeyes are priced too high based on the NIU win. And, it's not like Iowa State was terrible against SEMO last week, either.
Over/Under
UNDER 41.5 (-118) is the lean but roll with a half-unit play at most.
Again, we're going with the recent trends in the series, and these games tend to be emotionally heated, and lower scoring, with the field-goal kicker usually showing out more than skill position players with longer touchdowns.
Best prop bet
DJ VONNAHME - ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+230)
While I expect touchdowns to be in somewhat shorter order, Vonnahme is certain to be the first look if and when Iowa gets down in the red zone. He is a hulking tight end, which Iowa is known for, and for the chance to more than double up, he is worth a roll of the dice.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes odds, picks and predictions
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