In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet Saturday at UFC 333 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Early prelims begin at 10 a.m., followed by the prelims begin at noon ET and the main card at 2 p.m. ET (all on Paramount+). Let's analyze UFC odds around the UFC 333: Yan vs. Dvalishvili odds and make our expert UFC picks and predictions
.Records: Yan (20-5-0) | Dvalishvili (21-5-0)
After losing his strap to Aljamain Sterling at UFC 273, in a co-main event with Alexander Volkanovski, who is also on this card, Yan went into a skid. He lost his next 2 fights after the Sterling setback, including a loss to Dvalishvili in the main event of a Fight Night March 11, 2023. Since,
he has rattled off 4 straight wins, all via unanimous decision, including a rematch against Dvalishvili at UFC 323 Dec. 6, 2025. This will be the trilogy fight for all the marbles.
In addition to the 4 unanimous-decision wins in a row, Yan has gone the distance in 8 consecutive fights, with 5 unanimous-decision wins and 1 unanimous-decision loss to Dvalishvili, while dropping a pair of split-decision fights to Sterling (April 2022) and Sean O'Malley (October 2022).
For Dvalishvili, he took the belt from O'Malley at UFC 306 (September 2024), retained it against Umar Nurmagomedov (January 2025), O'Malley in a rematch (June 2025) and Cory Sandhagen (October 2025) before losing to Yan last time out (Dec. 6, 2025). Dvalishvili has gone the distance in 7 of his past 8 fights, going 6-1 in unanimous decisions with a Round 3 submission by O'Malley at UFC 316 as the only outlier. He's actually gone the distance in 13 of his past 15 bouts.
Dvalishvili has a 1-inch reach advantage over Yan, while Yan has a 5.16-to-4.42 advantage in significant strikes. Yan lands more of those strikes at 60.86%, to just 57.86% for the Georgian-born fighter. Dvalishvili dominates in takedowns, posting a 5.97-takedown average, to just 1.70 for Yan, although the champ is much more accurate on takedowns at 49.23%, with Dvalishvili checking in with a takedown-accuracy percentage of 35.21%.
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UFC 333: Yan vs. Dvalishvili odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:37 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Yan -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Dvalishvili +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -300 | No +210)
UFC 333: Yan vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
As long as YAN (-150) can keep this fight upright and in more of a toe-to-toe brawl, showing off his punching ability, he is going to get the job done in the third fight in this rivalry.
Yan doesn't want to get into a wrestling match with Dvalishvili as he hasn't had a submission victory since a win over Haron Orzumiev via guillotine back in May of 2015 at ACB 19: Baltic Challenge, well before he arrived on the scene in the UFC.
Dvalishvili knows Yan's strength isn't on the ground, so he'll be looking to get this fight to the canvas quickly. If Yan can avoid that, his accuracy on strikes will see him through.
Over/Under
Yes (-300): Fight to go the distance will set you back 3 times the potential return, which is way too expensive for not nearly enough reward.
Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including this prop can decrease the value of your ticket substantially.
As an alternative, look to YAN BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus-money. If he gets the win, it will likely be in a decision, which is exactly how his past 8 fights have ended.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC 333 Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds, picks and predictions
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