The New England Patriots (1-2) travel to take on the Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Let's analyze NFL odds around the Patriots vs. Bills odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.
New England was dominated 35-6 by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, failing to cover as a 2.5-point road underdog while the Under (46.5) hit. QB Drake Maye looked awful in the loss, completing just 14-of-25 (56%) of his passes for 199 yards and no scores while throwing 2 interceptions and fumbling twice, one of which resulted in a turnover. Maye, who finished as the runner-up NFL MVP last season, has thrown for just 585 yards and 1 TD with a 63.8% completion
percentage while also throwing 6 interceptions in just 3 games.
Buffalo got off to a slow start in its 24-16 Week 3 win over the LA Chargers, turning the ball over on 3 of its first 4 drives to start the game. The Bills would go on to turn the ball over 2 more times in that game, and QB Josh Allen had his worst performance of the year thus far, finishing with just 204 passing yards, 2 INTs, and 1 fumble lost. However, Allen's 2 rushing TDs, combined with 154 rushing yards and 1 TD from RB James Cook, were enough for the Bills to cover as 7.5-point home favorites, as the Under (50.5) cashed.
LB Greg Rousseau continued his Defensive Player of the Year caliber start to the season against LA, picking up 2 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, and 8 total tackles as Buffalo's defense shined in the win.
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Patriots at Bills odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Patriots +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Bills -325 (bet $325 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +7 (-115) | Bills -7 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50 (O: -108 | U: -110)
Patriots at Bills key injuries
Patriots
- DT Christian Barmore (shoulder) out
- RB Reggie Gilliam (knee) questionable
- CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) out
- OT Morgan Moses (foot) questionable
- CB Channing Canada (hamstring) questionable
- LB Christian Elliss (chest) questionable
- LB Dre'Mont Jones (shoulder) questionable
- TE Eli Raridon (thigh) questionable
- S Craig Woodson (shoulder) questionable
Bills
- CB Christian Benford (toe) questionable
- WR Keon Coleman (ankle) questionable
- DL T.J. Sanders (illness) doubtful
- RB Ray Davis (hamstring) questionable
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Patriots at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 26, Patriots 17
Moneyline
PASS.
The Bills are the better team, and with so many key injuries on New England's side, Buffalo should have no problem covering as a -325 favorite. However, such a heavy favorite is not worth the risk of betting on, so pass and bet on the spread and/or total instead.
Against the spread
LEAN BILLS -7 (-105).
Buffalo's rushing offense is already dominant, especially when you consider the threat of Josh Allen's legs. But with CB Christian Gonzalez outthere is a massive hole in New England's secondary, and that's a hole that the Bills will expose. On the other side, look for Rousseau to terrorize Maye all day.
Expect the Bills to start out slowly, but eventually they will find success through the air, and that will open the run game, and from there they will completely take this game over.
This is a lean because this is a divisional game that will likely be relatively low scoring and ugly, so there is a chance that the Patriots could keep this one close if they can force a turnover or make a big special teams play.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 50 (-110).
Maye has not looked good to start the season, and with star WR A.J. Brown still on IR, that's not expected to change here. Combine that with the fact that the Patriots have a mediocre run game at best, and it's obvious that it will be tough for the Patriots to find any consistent offensive success in this game. New England's run defense could have some success here, which would keep Buffalo's offense in check for at least a half, and that would be enough for the Under to cash.
Be aware that there is some risk here, as Buffalo's offense could have success with Gonzalez, but with New England's offense looking so bad, the risk isn't astronomical.
Best prop bet
BILLS WR DJ MOORE OVER 52.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-115).
In both games in which he was healthy, Moore has easily eclipsed 50 yards, including his 100-yard season opener against Houston's elite secondary. With Gonzalez out for this matchup, and considering how well the Patriots line up against Buffalo's rushing attack, Moore will be in the perfect position to be the X-factor for this team. Look for Moore to be found often once Buffalo's offense gets going and for him to expose this Patriots secondary all day.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions
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