The Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs meet for Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN / ABC). Let's analyze NFL prop bet odds around the Broncos vs. Chiefs and tab the 5 best prop bets to go along with SportsbookWire's expert NFL picks and predictions for Week 1.
The Broncos swept the Chiefs in 2025, winning 22-19 in Denver before taking the rematch 20-13 at Arrowhead on Christmas Day. Denver has also won 3 straight against its AFC West rival dating back to the 2024 season finale.
The Broncos enter 2026 with high expectations after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season. QB Bo Nix is healthy again after a leg injury ended his playoff run, and Denver
added WR Jaylen Waddle to an offense that already features WR Courtland Sutton. The Broncos also return one of the NFL’s top defenses, which ranked second overall and led the league in sacks last season.
The Chiefs enter 2026 looking to bounce back after a surprising 6-11 season ended their 9-year run as AFC West champions. The big story is QB Patrick Mahomes, who is expected to return Monday night after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee last December. Kansas City also added RB Kenneth Walker III and brought CB L’Jarius Sneed back to help a revamped roster.
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Best Broncos at Chiefs prop bets
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Last updated at 12:18 a.m. ET.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 21.5 PASS COMPLETIONS (+100)
Mahomes is back from his knee injury, but don’t expect Kansas City to immediately have him launching deep balls all over Arrowhead. The Chiefs should lean on the running game and quick passes, making this an appealing Monday Night Football play. Denver led the NFL in sacks last season, so getting the ball out quickly makes sense. New RB Walker also gives Mahomes another option underneath to help pile up the easy completions.
Broncos WR Courtland Sutton OVER 41.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Waddle may be Denver’s shiny new toy, but Sutton is still Nix’s trusted veteran target. Sutton has built plenty of chemistry with Nix and should remain a big part of the passing game, even with Waddle taking his share of looks. Kansas City also enters the season with a revamped secondary that could need some time to settle in. With Waddle drawing extra attention, Sutton should have enough opportunities to get past this number.
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Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 38.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110)
Kelce may have a few more miles on the tires, but Mahomes still knows where to find him. Kelce has topped 40 receiving yards in 16 of 22 career meetings with Denver, totaling 1,663 yards. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks last season, so Mahomes should look to get the ball out quickly. That fits Kelce perfectly, giving his longtime quarterback a reliable target underneath when the pressure starts coming.
Broncos K Will Lutz OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS MADE (-115)
Sean Payton loves himself some Lutz, dating all the way back to their days together in New Orleans. Lutz has rewarded that trust in Denver, making 89 of 100 field goals over three seasons. He also made multiple field goals in 4 of his final 5 games last year, including both matchups with Kansas City. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has always been good at tightening up near the end zone, which could leave Lutz with a busy Monday night.
Chiefs UNDER 19.5 TOTAL POINTS (+170)
Mahomes gets no warm-up act in his return from major knee surgery. Denver allowed just 18.3 points per game last season and kept Kansas City below 20 in both meetings. Vance Joseph’s defense can bring pressure, and the Broncos should again have one of the league’s better units. Mahomes is still Mahomes, but expecting him to immediately look like his old self against this defense feels like a big ask. Kansas City could be grinding for points all night.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs best prop bets for Monday Night Football
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