The Florida Gators (4-2, 2-2 SEC) and the No. 6 Texas Longhorns (4-1, 1-1) meet Saturday at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (ABC). Let's analyze college football odds around the Florida vs. Texas odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Florida was tripped up 38-19 at home last Saturday by South Carolina in a big upset -- the Gators were 10.5-point favorites and the Under (59.5) hit. Since a huge 52-28 upset at home of then-No. 6 Ole Miss Sept. 26, the Gators have lost back-to-back games -- 45-17 at Missouri and last week vs. South Carolina. The Over is 3-1 in Florida's past 4 games.
Texas also lost last week, suffering an upset as the No. 1 team in the country.
The Longhorns lost 27-24 to rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas as 7.5-point favorites with the Over (40.5) cashing. The Longhorns are 0-4 against the spread (ATS) in the past 4 games, while last week's Over halted a 3-game Under run.
Texas leads the all-time series 3-1-1. Florida won 29-21 in Gainesville last season (Oct. 4), pulling off the upset as 5.5-point underdogs with the Over (42.5) cashing. However, Texas is 2-0-1 vs. Florida in Austin, including a 49-17 rout in the first meeting as fellow SEC members (Nov. 9, 2024) -- and their first head-to-head since 1940.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Florida at Texas odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Florida +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Texas -420 (bet $420 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Florida +11.5 (-115) | Texas -11.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Florida at Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 30, Florida 20
Moneyline
Texas (-420) will set you back more than 4 times the potential return, which is not a recommended strategy, betting such a heavy favorite, especially as a standalone play. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, including Texas decreases the value of the overall ticket substantially.
PASS.
Against the spread
FLORIDA +11.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
While there is very little reason to like the Gators after double-digit losses to Mizzou and South Carolina, not exactly the cream of the crop in the SEC, this is a crucial game for Florida. All of those good feelings of being back nationally after the upset of Ole Miss 3 weeks ago have been washed away. Now, the Gators are simply trying to pull out of a nosedive, while playing to repair their resume for bowl season.
While Florida has failed to cover the past 2 games, Texas is 0-4 ATS in the past 4. Both teams should be angry. This should be a surprisingly good game between teams not feeling very good about themselves right now.
Over/Under
UNDER 51.5 (-115) is also worth playing lightly. The Florida offense was rolling up gigantic offensive totals in the first 4 games, going for 44+ points in each game. Somebody turned the spigot of as it has averaged just 18.0 points per game (PPG) the past 2 outings. The defense has always been a work in progress, and Florida has given up 28+ in 4 in a row. So, that's concerning for Under bettors.
Texas has just not been able to roll up giant totals, posting 30 or fewer points in each of the past 4 games. The defense has been good enough, allowing 13.3 PPG in the first 4 outings, but it was trucked for 27 points against a weak Oklahoma offense, so there is concern on the Texas side, too. Go lightly.
Best prop bet
Texas QB ARCH MANNING OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS (-114)
Manning threw for 260 yards and 3 TDs against Oklahoma, but he went for 201 or fewer yards in his previous 2 games against ranked teams. Which Arch will we see? Good Arch? Or bad Arch? It will likely be good Arch as the Florida pass defense has been trampled for 268.7 passing yards per game, ranking 131st out of 138 teams in FBS, according to NCAA.com.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Florida Gators at Texas Longhorns odds, picks and predictions
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