The Philadelphia Phillies (84-68) and New York Mets (69-83) play the first game Thursday of a 4-game NL East series in New York, New York. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 5-4
The Phillies continue their 9-game road trip after a 3-0 win Wednesday over the Washington Nationals, improving to 2-3 on the trip. Philadelphia cashed as a -194 road favorite while the Under (9) hit. SP Zack Wheeler (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K) improved to 13-5. 1B Alec Bohm led the offense, going 2 for 2 with a RBI and 3 walks. The Phillies still left opportunities on the table, finishing just 1 for 10 with runners
in scoring position.
The Phillies trail the Atlanta Braves by 4 1/2 games in the NL East, but hold the second Wild Card spot.
The Mets continue their 7-game homestand looking to stop a 4-game losing streak after being swept by the Baltimore Orioles. New York was outscored 16-7 in the 3-game series and went just 4 for 24 with runners in scoring position. The Mets have now dropped 5 of their last 6 games as their late-season struggles continue.
Watch MLB on Fubo!
Phillies at Mets projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Nolan McLean
Nola (6-10, 4.69 ERA) makes his 31st start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 161 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 6-5 loss at Atlanta Friday
- 2026 vs. Mets: 0-1, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 5 HR, 5 BB, 12 K in 2 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 11-11, 3.46 ERA (187 1/3 IP, 72 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 27 HR, 11.0 K/9 in 32 starts
- 2026 road splits: 5-6, 4.15 ERA (86 2/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 17 HR, 8.8 K/9 in 16 starts
McLean (11-9, 3.24 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 166 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 10 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 6-4 loss at New York Yankees Friday
- Career vs. Phillies: 2-1, 0.47 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 0 HR, 9.8 K/9 in 3 starts
- 2026 home splits: 5-6, 3.57 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 10 HR, 10.2 K/9 in 15 starts
Phillies at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Mets -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!
Phillies at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4, Mets 2
Moneyline
BET PHILLIES (+115).
The Phillies have the better starting pitching setup Thursday, with Nola rolling into New York in strong form. Nola has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of his last 8 starts and has piled up 165 strikeouts over 161 1/3 innings.
The Mets counter with McLean, who got knocked around in his last start, allowing 5 ER on 10 hits and a walk. Now he gets a Philadelphia lineup with some serious power, led by DH Kyle Schwarber and his MLB-best 45 homers.
Philadelphia has also been solid away from home at 43-34, while New York has dropped 4 straight and 5 of its last 6. The Mets were just swept by Baltimore because they struggled with runners in scoring position during that series.
With Nola dealing and the Mets struggling, getting Philadelphia at plus odds is too tempting.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I love getting the Phillies at plus odds on the moneyline, no need to mess with the run line.
Over/Under
UNDER 8 (-105).
These teams haven’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard against each other, with 6 of their last 7 meetings staying Under. The Mets have also gone Under in 3 of 4 as their offense continues to struggle in key spots. Nola adds another strong angle, with 4 of his last 6 starts staying Under.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions
Our editors independently choose our recommendations. Some content is produced with paid support from a third party, however our editorial decisions remain independent. If you buy through our links, the USA TODAY Network may earn a commission. Prices and availability may change.
Advertiser disclosure: USA TODAY may earn a commission when you sign up through links on this page. Commissions never influence our editorial coverage or rankings. Offers and odds were accurate at publication and are subject to change; terms apply — see the operator’s site. This is general information, not betting, legal or financial advice. To the fullest extent permitted by law, USA TODAY is not liable for losses arising from your use of it.
Must be 21+ (18+ where permitted). Sports betting and casino gaming are not legal everywhere; complying with the laws where you are located is your responsibility. Gamble only with funds you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Help is available 24/7 — call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. State helplines and responsible gaming resources.
