The No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and the Michigan Wolverines (4-2, 1-2) meet Saturday at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (FOX). Let's analyze college football odds around the Indiana vs. Michigan odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Michigan leads the all-time series 62-11, although the defending champs won 20-15 in Bloomington, Indiana, last season, and Indiana has won 2 of the past 5 meetings. However, the last win for the Hoosiers in the Big House was in 1967, with 22 consecutive losses in Ann Arbor. It lost 52-7 in 2023 in the most recent visit to Ann Arbor.
Indiana is coming off a gut-wrenching 19-15 loss to the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes,
as WR Nick Marsh was wide-open in the left side of the end zone on a fourth-down play with less than a minute to go in regulation. He appeared to have the game-winning touchdown, but his left foot was inches out of bounds, turning it over on downs.
The Hoosiers are 1-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road, narrowly escaping 20-17 at the Nebraska Cornhuskers as an 8.5-point favorite in the most recent road trip Oct. 10. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS overall, while the Under is 4-2 in the past 6 games, and 1-1 on the road.
Michigan snuck by the Penn State Nittany Lions 21-18 last weekend, but it didn't cover as 5.5-point favorites. QB Bryce Underwood was benched by coach Kyle Whittingham, and there are reports circulating that freshman QB Tommy Carr will start against the Hoosiers. Carr completed 5 of 7 passes for 47 yards, after Underwood had 2 INTs. Carr also ran for a score.
The win over the Nittany Lions did halt a 2-game skid, as the Wolverines had consecutive losses at the Minnesota Golden Gophers and home to the Iowa Hawkeyes in the final ticks of regulation. Michigan has failed to cover the past 3 games, and it is 2-3 ATS in 5 games in the Big House. The Under is 5-1 this season, including 4-1 in 5 home games, with the lone exception a 52-17 beatdown of the UTEP Miners Sept. 19.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Indiana at Michigan odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Indiana -295 (bet $295 to win $100) | Michigan +235 (bet $100 to win $235)
- Against the spread: Indiana -7.5 (-105) | Michigan +7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -114 | U: -106)
Indiana at Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Indiana 25, Michigan 16
Moneyline
Indiana (-295) figures to be steaming mad, as it has to rebound from its first loss since falling to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the first round of the CFP playoff on Dec. 20, 2024, and it was their first regular-season loss since Nov. 23, 2024, also against Ohio State. Still, you cannot risk nearly 3 times your potential return, especially on the road, in a place Indiana hasn't traditionally played well.
PASS.
Against the spread
INDIANA -7.5 (-105) is worth playing lightly, but I am never a big fan of laying 7 and the hook. Michigan's offense is in disarray, and a freshman quarterback reportedly making his first-ever collegiate start doesn't give me a lot of confidence on the underdog, either.
The best strategy is to buy up a little bit and take INDIANA -6.5 - ALTERNATE SPREAD (-138) - to get the number under a flat 7. That's a nice bit of insurance, although you might not need it. Still, Michigan's defense is championship caliber, even if its offense is scuffling.
Over/Under
UNDER 42.5 (-106) is a low number in this day and age, but Michigan has the defense to make this a long day for Indiana, as it looks to rebound from the disappointing loss.
The Under has cashed in the past 2 games for Indiana, averaging just 17.5 points oer game, while allowing 18.0 PPG. The defense for IU is pretty good, too, and it has allowed 19 or fewer points in 6 of 7 games, with 2 shutout victories.
Best prop bet
Michigan QB TOMMY CARR - UNDER 144.5 PASSING YARDS (-144).
I am not 100 percent sold on Underwood being completely out of the picture, as Michigan would be paying him a lot of money to wear a ball cap while carrying a clipboard. If the freshman Carr struggles, I could see Underwood getting a chance to redeem himself in a high-profile game. Even if Carr plays the whole game, though, it's a very difficult spot starting against a top-tier defense.
Betting odds calculator
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Follow Daniel Dobish on X at @danieledobish. Follow SportsbookWire on X at SportsBookWire and on Facebook.
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines odds, picks and predictions
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