The New York Yankees (80-60) visit the San Diego Padres (73-67) for the Friday opener of a 3-game series in San Diego, California. The first pitch from Petco Park is slated for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: first meeting; Yankees took 2 of 3 games in New York in 2025
The Yankees are continuing a West Coast road swing that opened with the club taking 2 of 3 at the Los Angeles Angels (Monday-Wednesday). A -162 New York favorite took Wednesday's rubber match 6-3 (Over 6.5) thanks to 5 Yankees runs in the top of the 10th inning. LF Cody Bellinger collected 3 hits.
The Padres lost their last game 7-3 at Cincinnati on Wednesday as -164
favorites with the Over 9.5 hitting -- their fifth loss in their last 6 games. All of those games were on the road; San Diego 16-4 at Petco Park since July 11.
Both clubs were idle Thursday.
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Yankees at Padres projected starters
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Walker BuehlerFried (4-4, 2.80 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has registered a 1.00 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 90 IP in 16 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 9-2 win vs. Boston Red Sox Saturday
- Last game was in a return from the IL (elbow bone bruise)
- Career vs. Padres (regular season): 3-1, 2.11 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 34 H, 3 HR, 5 BB, 31 K in 6 starts (also pitched 2 innings vs. San Diego in 2024 NL Wild Card series, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits with a home run in 5-4 loss)
Buehler (8-6, 4.66 ERA) is making his 28th start. He has registered a 1.36 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 131 1/3 IP in 27 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 7-6 loss at Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
- Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 0-1, 14.54 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 3 HR, 3 BB, 4 K in 2 games (also pitched 6 shutout innings vs. Yankees in 2024 World Series)
Yankees at Padres odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Padres -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Yankees at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
San Diego has banged out a .776 OPS over its last 40 games. The Padres struggle against left-handers but they do have better numbers against Fried than what shows in career-ERA figures. Per ESPN, current San Diego bats own an aggregate .729 OPS vs. the veteran. And that Yankee southpaw could well experience some fatigue in a second turn off injury without much rehab ramp time.The Yankee offense has put up good totals of late, but New York has posted some big clutch-hitting numbers over that stretch. That can overshade the true impact of what a team is doing with its bats.
Buehler figures as being undervalued by his surface numbers. He clocked a 2.76 ERA across 3 home starts in August, and he has a good history of strong finishes to the regular season.
THE PADRES (-102) HAVE VALUE.
Run line/Against the spread
No interest; PASS.
Over/Under
The last 5 series meetings have seen the Under go 4-1. The Under is 3-0 in the Padres' last 3 home games.
Almost no lean here due to pitching and batting indicators that swing both ways. But with potential Padre issues against lefties, two excellent and rested bullpens in play, and a slight inward breeze in the Petco Park forecast, the UNDER 7.5 (-120) is perhaps worth some partial-unit action.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: New York Yankees at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions
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