The Pitt Panthers (5-2, 2-2 ACC) and No. 1 Miami Hurricanes (6-0, 4-0) square off in an ACC matchup Saturday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Kickoff is set for noon ET (ESPN). Let's analyze college football odds around the Virginia at SMU odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.
Pitt dropped its second straight game after a 5-0 start, falling 27-21 (Over 43) at the Boston College Eagles (+6.5) Saturday. Pitt QB Corey Dailey, a true freshman making his first start of the season, threw a 75-yard TD pass to WR Cataurus Hicks on the first play from scrimmage, but that was his lone highlight in the game as he completed 11 of 25 passes for 193 yards with 2 INTs. Hicks finished the game for 5 catches
for 135 yards, while RB Damon Ferguson Jr. had 119 yards on 17 carries. Pitt's defense allowed Boston College QB Mason McKenzie to complete 17 of 28 passes for 295 yards with 2 TDs, but did have 2 INTs.
The newly anointed No. 1 team in the country needed double overtime to escape with a 43-35 (Over 57) victory over their rival Florida State Seminoles (+20.5) Saturday. Miami QB Darian Mensah completed 23 of 34 passes for 326 yards and 3 TDs with 1 INT. WR Malachi Toney had 11 catches for 154 yards and 2 TDs, including the game-winner in the second OT. He also threw the 2-point conversion pass - a completion to WR Cooper Barkate -- for good measure. RB Javian Mallory led Miami with 108 yards and 2 TDs on 13 carries, while RB Mark Fletcher Jr. had 66 yards and 1 TD on 17 carries. FSU QB Ashton Daniels torched Miami for 298 yards and 4 TDs with 1 INT in the loss.
Miami leads the all-time series vs. Pitt 30-12-1. Miami won 38-7 at Pitt last November. Toney had 13 catches for 126 yards and 1 TD in the victory.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Pitt at Miami odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pitt +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000) | Miami -1600 (bet $1,600 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Pitt +20 (-108) | Miami -20 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -108)
Pitt at Miami picks and predictions
Prediction
Miami 38, Pitt 13
Moneyline
PASS.
While last weekend's results around the country showed that just about anything is possible on any given Saturday, it's difficult to see Pitt pulling the upset with their true freshman QB making his second start.
Against the spread
BET MIAMI -20 (-108).
I chalk up last Saturday's scare against FSU as things that happen in rivalry games no matter the record. Also, FSU has the kind of offensive talent that can give Miami some trouble. Pitt does not. Holding the No. 1 spot in the rankings for the first time since December of 2002, Miami will look to show the nation why it's deserving of the accolade.
Over/Under
BET OVER 48.5 (-110).
Pitt has the top-ranked rushing defense in the ACC (57.3 rushing yards allowed per game), but they're near the bottom of the league in pass defense (249 passing YPG). Miami excels in the passing game and is averaging 48.5 points and nearly 560 YPG overall. While I don't think they'll hit those averages, I'm not expecting Pitt to completely shut them down either. It's more or less a matter of what Pitt can do on offense. If they can at least get 10 points, I think it will go Over.
Best Prop Bet
Bet Miami WR COOPER BARKATE OVER 75+ RECEIVING YARDS (+230).
Barkate is Miami's second leading receiver, though he trails Toney in targets and yards by a country mile. Nevertheless, this should be a week for him to step out of the shadows against Pitt's less than average pass defense. He's only surpassed this total once (98 yards vs. Clemson), which is why there is a lot of value here.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Pitt Panthers at Miami Hurricanes odds, picks and predictions
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