The Philadelphia Phillies (77-60) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (73-65) open a 3-game series Monday at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-1, winning the first series in Philadelphia April 10-12 as the Under cashed in the final 2 games of the set.
The Phillies swept the Los Angeles Angels in 3 games over the weekend, and they've won 4 in a row after dropping the first 2 games of the road trip. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games. They are tied for the top NL Wild Card spot with the Chicago Cubs.
The Diamondbacks (-124) were tripped up 7-2 Sunday
as favorites at the San Francisco Giants, finishing with a 4-game split. The Under has a 3-2 edge in the past 5 games, while going 3-1 in the past 4 at home. Arizona holds the last Wild Card spot, 4 1/2 games behind the Phillies and Cubs. They are a half-game ahead of the San Diego Padres.
Arizona is 40-29 at home, while posting a plus-5 run differential. The Diamondbacks are just 12-13 vs. NL East teams in 2026. Philadelphia is 39-30 on the road, with a plus-30 run differential. The Phillies have managed a 17-10 mark vs. NL West teams.
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Phillies at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
Nola (5-10, 5.03 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, 9.6 K/9 in 143 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 7 K in 4-1 loss at Seattle Mariners Tuesday
- 2026 road splits (14 starts): 4-6, 4.42 ERA (75 1/3 IP, 37 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 15 HR, 27 BB, 78 K
- Career vs. Diamondbacks (8 starts): 3-4, 6.23 (43 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 5 HR, 10 BB, 45 K, 9.3 K/9
Pfaadt (7-1, 3.51 ERA) makes his 15th start (25th appearance). He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 6.2 K/9 in 105 innings.
- Last appearance: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-4 home win vs. Cubs Tuesday
- 2026 home splits (7 starts, 12 appearances): 3-0, 3.79 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 5 HR, 16 BB, 27 K
- Career vs. Phillies (2 starts): 0-2, 7.59 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 4 HR, 4 BB, 12 K, 10.1 K/9
Phillies at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:34 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -114 (bet $114 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +106 (bet $100 to win $106)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+138) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-166)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Diamondbacks 5, Phillies 3
Moneyline
The DIAMONDBACKS (+106) are a nice value as home dogs behind Pfaadt, who has been red-hot lately. He is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.93 WHIP across 46 IP in his past 7 starts. On the flip side, Nola has been horrible for the Phillies all season. They've let him work it out, but if Philly makes the postseason, he is likely not going to be a big part of its pitching plan.
Run line/Against the spread
If you're very careful, and can't take Arizona straight up for whatever reason, DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-166) isn't priced out of line if you just have to have insurance.
Over/Under
The UNDER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.
The Under is good call with Pfaadt on the bump, but it's a little more risky with the very giving Nola. The Under is 4-1 in the past 5 games for the Phillies, and the Under is 3-0 in Nola's past 3 starts, so there's that.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions
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