The Atlanta Braves (89-64) and Houston Astros (77-76) play the first game Friday of a 3-game series in Houston, Texas. First pitch from Daikin Park is at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze MLB odds around the Braves vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Astros won 2-1
The Braves dropped their series against the Chicago Cubs with an 8-4 loss in Wednesday’s rubber match. Atlanta fell as a +140 road underdog as the Over (7.5) cashed. The Braves managed just 1 run over 6 innings against SP Shota Imanaga, while CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and 3B Alex Bregman combined to go 6-for-8 with 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. LF Mauricio Dubon went 2 for 4 with an RBI double for Atlanta, which has now dropped 3 of
its last 4 games.
The Astros continue their 6-game homestand after taking 2 of 3 from the Kansas City Royals, including a 6-2 victory in Thursday’s rubber match. Houston cashed as a -156 home favorite as the Under (9) hit. The Astros launched 5 homers in the win, led by DH Yordan Alvarez’s 40th of the season. SS Jeremy Pena, CF Daulton Varsho, LF Taylor Trammell and 1B LaMonte Wade Jr. also went deep.
The Braves lead NL East by 4 games over the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Astros are tied at the top of the AL West with the Texas Rangers.
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Braves at Astros projected starters
RHP Tyler Mahle vs. RHP Peter Lambert
Mahle (6-10, 3.91 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 138 innings between the Braves and San Francisco Giants.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 3 K in 12-2 victory vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
- Career vs. Astros: 1-2, 3.00 ERA (24 IP, 8 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2 HR, 6.8 K/9 in 4 starts
- 2026 road splits: 1-7, 5.61 ERA (67 1/3 IP, 42 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 10 HR, 8.8 K/9 in 13 starts
Lambert (8-9, 3.71 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 145 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-2 loss at Tampa Bay Rays Saturday
- Only start vs. Braves: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 H (1 HR), 0 BB, 2 K in 3-1 defeat Aug. 29, 2023 as a member of the Colorado Rockies
- 2026 home splits: 5-6, 4.03 ERA (91 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 8 HR, 8.6 K/9 in 15 starts
Braves at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Braves -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Astros +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Braves -1.5 (+135) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Braves at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Astros 2
Moneyline
The pitching matchup gives Atlanta a clear opportunity to bounce back Friday. Mahle has been strong since joining the Braves and carries a 3.91 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP into Houston.
The Astros counter with Lambert, who is allowing 9.7 hits per 9 innings. Atlanta also has the stronger pitching staff overall, posting a 3.64 team ERA compared with Houston’s 4.51 mark.
The Braves have a slight offensive edge as well, averaging 4.6 runs per game, and they’ve gone 65-39 when listed as the favorite. Houston flexed its muscles with 5 homers Thursday, but Atlanta has been the better team overall.
With Mahle dealing and Lambert vulnerable, I’m BETTING BRAVES ML (-120) Friday.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I'm not playing with the run line with this matchup, though if I did it would be a lean to Atlanta -1.5 (+135).
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-120).
Friday has the makings of a quiet night in Houston. We've got a solid pitching matchup and the Astros have also played plenty of low-scoring baseball lately, with 3 of their last 5 games producing 6 runs or fewer. With both starters in good form, I’m riding the Under Friday.
Betting odds calculator
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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions
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